Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?Re=3a_Fight_the_coronavirus_100=25_and_save_LOTS_of_CASH_?=
=?UTF-8?Q?--_Combattez_le_coronavirus_100=25_et_=c3=a9conomisez_BEAUCOUP_d?=
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On 5/2/20 12:52 PM, Bit Twister wrote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 15:31:31 -0000 (UTC), Jim Beard wrote:
The Australian Prime Minister's statement of 1 May says there are 6,760
confirmed cases, 92 people have died. There are now only around 1000
active cases in Australia.
Divide 92 by 6,760 and you get 1.3 percent. Without knowing how long
each afflicted has been infected, about all one can say is the death
rate appears to be low,
At this point in time in your area.
perhaps at the high end for influenza.
High end you say, here in the USA flu death is about .1 percent death rate. your 1.3 is a bit more than high end. Our Fc*king president gave the same information earlier this year.
Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I get around 7%.
All death rate figures are suspect, because it is known that an unknown
number of infected people never exhibit symptoms. Each calculation of a
death rate makes an assumption regarding that unknown number, with
probably as many different assumptions as there are people making calculations. Some even disregard that number entirely.
The 1000 cases active of 6,760 is more interesting, as it implies
85 percent have recovered. That leaves 13.7 percent pending.
Multiple surveys are showing those who have been infected (not just
exposed but infected, with antibodies to show for it) are a multiple
of those "confirmed" by testing OR observation, and the latter is
both a major part of those confirmed and of uncertain validity.
Many more people infected than recognized, the "unconfirmed"
unrecognized and 85 percent of the confirmed getting over it,
and a death rate down in the influenze range suggests that any
catastrophe for society as a whole will be due to our stupidity
in responding rather than to Covid-19.
I can agree. Trump and crew are downplaying what they do know and
and have policies in place to prevent knowing the full extent of the
problem.
If everybody knew the real truth they would be a lot less eager to
"get back to normal" interaction.
I know for a fact social distancing only slows the spread.
I made it a point to always be first in store when opens and do not
touch my face until after I get home, putting away the groceries then
washing my hands for 30 seconds. I still caught a virus.
Had a day and half of runny nose, started decongestant after first hour
of runny nose. Slight cough. maybe two days of sore muscles. nothing else
for awhile then noticed shorting of breath, then days of tightenes of
the top of my lungs when getting a really deep breath.
Bit, you should avoid the trap of thinking that any virus you might
catch must have been covid-19. You must remember, even though
"cold-and-flu" season is supposedly over, those diseases are still around.
I had a dental emergency the end of February. Something like four days afterward, I started showing symptoms of bronchitis, what used to be
called a "chest cold." Worst part was the constant productive cough, but
there was a fever involved, too. Fever was gone and cough diminished
after a week, but cough didn't disappear for another 10 days or so.
This was before there were any confirmed cases of covid-19 in New York,
and at the time I just thought it was an "ordinary" virus that had been seriously transmitted because of the circumstances. Later, I began to
wonder if I had actually had covid-19, and I went back and forth for a
while because some symptoms fit while others didn't.
But now, since there has been significant antibody testing in my county/region, which has shown that among those tested, only about 1.2% actually had the antibodies, I tend to think my original assumption is correct. No, I have not been tested. At this point, it would serve
little purpose.
I tend to ignore any numbers from CDC here in the US.
You should. They are generalized, and do not reflect the situation in
your immediate area.
It is pretty stupid to not make it mandatory to have all cases reported
up to the next higher authority, city, county, state, totaled and reported
up the chain every day and allow public access at each level.
Here in NY, the governor has been giving a daily briefing of those
numbers since sometime in early March. He shows graphs illustrating the
rise and decline of new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, among
other statistics.
But those numbers are state-wide. They add the numbers for downstate
(NYC) and Upstate together. And because the infection and death rate
downstate is more than 10 times that of upstate, those numbers don't
paint an accurate picture.
Our county executive has been giving daily briefings, too. But he's
reporting numbers broken down by this county and those that surround it,
with the ones in this county further broken down by township. That gives
a much truer picture of our region.
I spend most of my time in the middle of 200 acres, with my nearest
neighbor 1/4 mile away, but I do have to shop for groceries every so
often. I go when it's convenient. I do wear a mask, as the governor has ordered every New Yorker to do in public, but I don't take any other
extra precautions. Except for the virus mentioned above, I remain healthy.
Even though I am over 70, and therefor in the "vulnerable" category, I
choose NOT to live in fear. I am selling horse hay out of my barn, and I received a delivery of planting supplies last week. Neither time did any
of us take any unusual precautions, other than the six-foot distance
rule. This August, I hope to sell homegrown vegetables to anybody who
will stop by and buy them on my farm stand.
We'll see if I survive.
TJ
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