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  • Re: Amazing, they conduct polls using a pool of 1000-3000 voters

    From =?UTF-8?Q?Pelle_Svansl=C3=B6s?=@21:1/5 to PeteWasLucky on Sun Jul 28 10:00:19 2024
    On 28.7.2024 8.32, PeteWasLucky wrote:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/27/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-trump-holds-slight-lead-over-harris-in-harrisxforbes-poll/

    What exactly is amazing? Polls have always been conducted by randomly
    sampling a subset of the population. Nothing new here. A sample size of
    a 1000 gives roughly a 3% margin for error. It is in fact amazing how
    fast these things converge with so little. A 10k sample size would give
    you approximately 1% margin for error. But that would cost 10x more, and
    there are other sources of uncertainty.

    Polls are polls.

    --
    "And off they went, from here to there,
    The bear, the bear, and the maiden fair"
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  • From Scall5@21:1/5 to jdeluise on Sun Jul 28 02:16:08 2024
    On 7/28/2024 1:41 AM, jdeluise wrote:
    PeteWasLucky <waleed.khedr@gmail.com> writes:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/27/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-trump-holds-slight-lead-over-harris-in-harrisxforbes-poll/

    Is that any different from the norm?  I'd say trust no polls.

    Polls are even less trust-worthy these days as most people don't take a
    call from an unknown phone number...
    --
    ---------------
    Scall5

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  • From =?UTF-8?Q?Pelle_Svansl=C3=B6s?=@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 28 10:22:53 2024
    On 28.7.2024 10.16, Scall5 wrote:
    On 7/28/2024 1:41 AM, jdeluise wrote:
    PeteWasLucky <waleed.khedr@gmail.com> writes:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/27/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-trump-holds-slight-lead-over-harris-in-harrisxforbes-poll/

    Is that any different from the norm?  I'd say trust no polls.

    Polls are even less trust-worthy these days as most people don't take a
    call from an unknown phone number...

    Not to mention the dilemma of the deplorable. "Can't come out of the
    closet!"

    --
    "And off they went, from here to there,
    The bear, the bear, and the maiden fair"
    -- Traditional

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  • From =?UTF-8?Q?Pelle_Svansl=C3=B6s?=@21:1/5 to PeteWasLucky on Sun Jul 28 20:06:31 2024
    On 28.7.2024 19.40, PeteWasLucky wrote:

    "Distinctions like these add to the complexity of nailing down accuracy."

    Like I said, there's other sources of uncertainty besides sampling
    errors. There's nothing amazing about sample sizes of 1k, however.

    Hope this will be another election with a good turnout. And hope Twump
    will again be left scratching his head. "How can I lose when I get more
    votes than when I won?! Stop the steaw!"

    --
    "And off they went, from here to there,
    The bear, the bear, and the maiden fair"
    -- Traditional

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