The U.S. labor market heated up in December, adding more jobs than
expected and stoking optimism that higher interest rates and slower
growth abroad won’t stop the steady march of economic growth and wage
gains for American workers.
With low unemployment, rising incomes and inflation down to a third of
its peak in 2022, it raises the question of just how good an economy President-elect Donald Trump stands to inherit when he enters office in
less than two weeks.
“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it
ever gets,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told the New York Times last week. “The U.S. economy is the envy of the rest of
the world, as it is the only significant economy that is growing more
quickly postpandemic than prepandemic.”
Trump is also returning to the Oval Office in the midst of a scorching
run for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 23.3% in 2024,
according to FactSet — better than any clip for a calendar year
preceding a White House transition since Reagan took office in the wake
of a 25.8% climb for the S&P in 1980.
Even the inflation rate — the great political weakness of President Joe Biden — has come down significantly and remains well within the
historical norm.
The latest reading of the consumer-price index in November showed prices rising at a 2.7% annual rate. That’s a bit above the average rate since 2000 of 2.6% but below the rate of 3.3% experienced since 1980.
But ...
“Inflation expectations are up as people wait to see the impact of
tariff walls … on consumer prices, the impact of a reduced labor force after undocumented immigrants are sent home, and the effects of of
cutting taxes in an economy already at full employment,” he added. “Things are fine right now, and confidence is improving, but who knows
what the future will bring?”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-donald-trump-inheriting-the-best- economy-in-history-bef59427
Trump gets another ride on the coattails of a Demmie fixed economy.
Pelle Svanslös kirjoitti 12.1.2025 klo 14.12:
The U.S. labor market heated up in December, adding more jobs than
expected and stoking optimism that higher interest rates and slower
growth abroad won’t stop the steady march of economic growth and wage
gains for American workers.
With low unemployment, rising incomes and inflation down to a third of
its peak in 2022, it raises the question of just how good an economy
President-elect Donald Trump stands to inherit when he enters office
in less than two weeks.
“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it
ever gets,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told the >> New York Times last week. “The U.S. economy is the envy of the rest of
the world, as it is the only significant economy that is growing more
quickly postpandemic than prepandemic.”
Trump is also returning to the Oval Office in the midst of a scorching
run for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 23.3% in 2024,
according to FactSet — better than any clip for a calendar year
preceding a White House transition since Reagan took office in the
wake of a 25.8% climb for the S&P in 1980.
Even the inflation rate — the great political weakness of President
Joe Biden — has come down significantly and remains well within the
historical norm.
The latest reading of the consumer-price index in November showed
prices rising at a 2.7% annual rate. That’s a bit above the average
rate since 2000 of 2.6% but below the rate of 3.3% experienced since
1980.
But ...
“Inflation expectations are up as people wait to see the impact of
tariff walls … on consumer prices, the impact of a reduced labor force
after undocumented immigrants are sent home, and the effects of of
cutting taxes in an economy already at full employment,” he added.
“Things are fine right now, and confidence is improving, but who knows
what the future will bring?”
It would be a shame if US wasn't able to exploit illegals to prop the competitiveness.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-donald-trump-inheriting-the-best-
economy-in-history-bef59427
Trump gets another ride on the coattails of a Demmie fixed economy.
Actually, a recession could be coming,
if it isn't already there.
S&P500 is in a price bubble, while earnings have not increased in 3
years... which is something you hear media never even mentioning.
On 12/01/2025 19.56, TT wrote:
Pelle Svanslös kirjoitti 12.1.2025 klo 14.12:
The U.S. labor market heated up in December, adding more jobs than
expected and stoking optimism that higher interest rates and slower
growth abroad won’t stop the steady march of economic growth and wage
gains for American workers.
With low unemployment, rising incomes and inflation down to a third
of its peak in 2022, it raises the question of just how good an
economy President-elect Donald Trump stands to inherit when he enters
office in less than two weeks.
“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it
ever gets,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told
the New York Times last week. “The U.S. economy is the envy of the
rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is
growing more quickly postpandemic than prepandemic.”
Trump is also returning to the Oval Office in the midst of a
scorching run for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 23.3% in
2024, according to FactSet — better than any clip for a calendar year
preceding a White House transition since Reagan took office in the
wake of a 25.8% climb for the S&P in 1980.
Even the inflation rate — the great political weakness of President
Joe Biden — has come down significantly and remains well within the
historical norm.
The latest reading of the consumer-price index in November showed
prices rising at a 2.7% annual rate. That’s a bit above the average
rate since 2000 of 2.6% but below the rate of 3.3% experienced since
1980.
But ...
“Inflation expectations are up as people wait to see the impact of
tariff walls … on consumer prices, the impact of a reduced labor
force after undocumented immigrants are sent home, and the effects of
of cutting taxes in an economy already at full employment,” he added.
“Things are fine right now, and confidence is improving, but who
knows what the future will bring?”
It would be a shame if US wasn't able to exploit illegals to prop the
competitiveness.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-donald-trump-inheriting-the-
best- economy-in-history-bef59427
Trump gets another ride on the coattails of a Demmie fixed economy.
Actually, a recession could be coming,
It's always right around the corner.
if it isn't already there.
First I've heard of this.
S&P500 is in a price bubble, while earnings have not increased in 3
years... which is something you hear media never even mentioning.
Because, as presented by you, it isn't worth mentioning. There was this pandemic in between. Prices, earnings both plummeted. Then recovered
back to where they were before. And are still climbing.
On 1/12/25 9:56 AM, TT wrote:
Pelle Svanslös kirjoitti 12.1.2025 klo 14.12:
The U.S. labor market heated up in December, adding more jobs than
expected and stoking optimism that higher interest rates and slower
growth abroad won’t stop the steady march of economic growth and wage
gains for American workers.
With low unemployment, rising incomes and inflation down to a third
of its peak in 2022, it raises the question of just how good an
economy President-elect Donald Trump stands to inherit when he enters
office in less than two weeks.
“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it
ever gets,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told
the New York Times last week. “The U.S. economy is the envy of the
rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is
growing more quickly postpandemic than prepandemic.”
Trump is also returning to the Oval Office in the midst of a
scorching run for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 23.3% in
2024, according to FactSet — better than any clip for a calendar year
preceding a White House transition since Reagan took office in the
wake of a 25.8% climb for the S&P in 1980.
Even the inflation rate — the great political weakness of President
Joe Biden — has come down significantly and remains well within the
historical norm.
The latest reading of the consumer-price index in November showed
prices rising at a 2.7% annual rate. That’s a bit above the average
rate since 2000 of 2.6% but below the rate of 3.3% experienced since
1980.
But ...
“Inflation expectations are up as people wait to see the impact of
tariff walls … on consumer prices, the impact of a reduced labor
force after undocumented immigrants are sent home, and the effects of
of cutting taxes in an economy already at full employment,” he added.
“Things are fine right now, and confidence is improving, but who
knows what the future will bring?”
It would be a shame if US wasn't able to exploit illegals to prop the
competitiveness.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-donald-trump-inheriting-the-
best- economy-in-history-bef59427
Trump gets another ride on the coattails of a Demmie fixed economy.
TT, here's my take, for whatever it's worth...
Actually, a recession could be coming, if it isn't already there.
I don't see this. I've been following the "mood" of the economy here for years, because I'm tied into it indirectly for income, and directly for
int rates.
The "feel" of the economy is neither optimistic nor deeply worried. It underscores the observation that Trump did not win due to the economy,
he won *in spite* of the fact that the economy was pretty comfortable, historically.
This then leaves two primary reasons: a) broad dissatisfaction with
social policies like DEI, trans support; student loan forgiveness; and
b) Harris really did not measure up as a credible candidate for national leadership.
S&P500 is in a price bubble, while earnings have not increased in 3
years... which is something you hear media never even mentioning. The
news is always that companies beat Wall Street estimates.
The problem that worries me is not that PE ratios are not realistic in historical terms, so much as the fact that there is no compensatory
reason for them to be. Back in super low int rates, it was
understandable that quite a bit of money that would normally go into
fixed income were driven into equities *simply to retain principal
levels at par or a bit above during inflation*.
To me, that would go a ways in explaining out-of-whack PE rations.
When rates rose, lower risk money should have flowed out of equities,
but apparently did not. (NOTE: This also would explain why the prime
was cut substantially, but the private lending rates did not follow the
prime down--I don't recall seeing this as much before.) Maybe it was
because of over-enthusiasm over AI, or maybe because the US economy was better relative to other western economies. I don't know, but it *feels* unstable now, and I'm concerned.
Housing market
is in a bubble as well, or at least apparently at unaffordable levels.
Part of it is in the past families would buy into bigger, better houses.
This was fine when your old rate on the house you're selling was say
4.25% and the rate on the new house was maybe 5.75%. It was a stretch,
but not crazy.
So when this was in force, Family A wanted to get a bigger house because
they had more combined income than when they bought the first house.
This means that they'd end up selling to Couple B. It might be their
first house--their "starter home".
This is not happening now because family A likely has a 30 year fixed at anywhere between 2.75 to 3.75, at most. If they sell the new house will
be 30 years fixed at almost 7%. They won't do this, most of them.
So you have more demand than supply. Not necessarily all due to a
shortage of existing houses as few old houses are being listed for sale.
US debt at record levels and rising fast, there doesn't seem to be
much that can be done about it. Consumer credit card debt exploding.
Solution, print more money, tariffs, get inflation...
This is a very big danger. I can see this as more likely than not.
So it's a bubbly, propped up economy which may crash soon.
It began being REALLY propped as a result of COVID. Then the cash
programs were extended past the 2022 off-year election because the party
in power did not want to be in the position of telling many voters--
often those who'd traditionally vote Demo--that their rent protection
ended.
On 1/13/25 12:19 PM, TT wrote:
Sawfish kirjoitti 13.1.2025 klo 0.50:
IMO, what's happening in US employment is that service-type jobs--low
paying, mostly--are in good shape for now, and as you note, for better- paying jobs, it's an expanded government sector.
Anecdotally last year my daughter applied for a data analytics position
for the city's DEI department. The position was to check that the historically underprivileged are not paying more than a certain
percentage of their income for public services.
Kamala was just terrible candidate, literally.
From my perspective I started with the ideas that a) she was likely to
be elected and b) I therefore hoped/wanted to believe that she was a
tough and competent political animal.
Very gradually this wore away of its own very obvious accord. She just
ended up appearing unconfident and anxious.
Exactly the person to talk face-to-face with Netayahu, Kim,Putin, etc. :^(
We'll see. It will be a test, like the outright demand for Greenland...
I see bond funds as a hedge, the way I use them. They are an income
source (not a very good one) and they *may* increase in share value--but likely not, or by very much.
Individual bonds are to hard for me to keep track of because their asset value is affected inversely to one's normal ideas of a commodity price.
It is their rate of return combined with the remaining term that make it
hard for me to keep a grip on.
Pelle Svanslös kirjoitti 13.1.2025 klo 13.50:
On 12/01/2025 19.56, TT wrote:
Pelle Svanslös kirjoitti 12.1.2025 klo 14.12:
The U.S. labor market heated up in December, adding more jobs than
expected and stoking optimism that higher interest rates and slower
growth abroad won’t stop the steady march of economic growth and
wage gains for American workers.
With low unemployment, rising incomes and inflation down to a third
of its peak in 2022, it raises the question of just how good an
economy President-elect Donald Trump stands to inherit when he
enters office in less than two weeks.
“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as
it ever gets,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics,
told the New York Times last week. “The U.S. economy is the envy of
the rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is
growing more quickly postpandemic than prepandemic.”
Trump is also returning to the Oval Office in the midst of a
scorching run for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 23.3%
in 2024, according to FactSet — better than any clip for a calendar
year preceding a White House transition since Reagan took office in
the wake of a 25.8% climb for the S&P in 1980.
Even the inflation rate — the great political weakness of President
Joe Biden — has come down significantly and remains well within the
historical norm.
The latest reading of the consumer-price index in November showed
prices rising at a 2.7% annual rate. That’s a bit above the average
rate since 2000 of 2.6% but below the rate of 3.3% experienced since
1980.
But ...
“Inflation expectations are up as people wait to see the impact of
tariff walls … on consumer prices, the impact of a reduced labor
force after undocumented immigrants are sent home, and the effects
of of cutting taxes in an economy already at full employment,” he
added. “Things are fine right now, and confidence is improving, but
who knows what the future will bring?”
It would be a shame if US wasn't able to exploit illegals to prop the
competitiveness.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-donald-trump-inheriting-the-
best- economy-in-history-bef59427
Trump gets another ride on the coattails of a Demmie fixed economy.
Actually, a recession could be coming,
It's always right around the corner.
if it isn't already there.
First I've heard of this.
S&P500 is in a price bubble, while earnings have not increased in 3
years... which is something you hear media never even mentioning.
Because, as presented by you, it isn't worth mentioning. There was
this pandemic in between. Prices, earnings both plummeted. Then
recovered back to where they were before. And are still climbing.
Nonsense.
https://i.postimg.cc/SNDSjWks/sp500-earnings.png
Tomorrow US inflation numbers. 0.3% for December expected. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mom
If 0.4, it could become interesting...
On 13/01/2025 22.24, TT wrote:
Pelle Svanslös kirjoitti 13.1.2025 klo 13.50:
On 12/01/2025 19.56, TT wrote:
Pelle Svanslös kirjoitti 12.1.2025 klo 14.12:
The U.S. labor market heated up in December, adding more jobs than
expected and stoking optimism that higher interest rates and slower
growth abroad won’t stop the steady march of economic growth and
wage gains for American workers.
With low unemployment, rising incomes and inflation down to a third
of its peak in 2022, it raises the question of just how good an
economy President-elect Donald Trump stands to inherit when he
enters office in less than two weeks.
“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as >>>>> it ever gets,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, >>>>> told the New York Times last week. “The U.S. economy is the envy of >>>>> the rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that
is growing more quickly postpandemic than prepandemic.”
Trump is also returning to the Oval Office in the midst of a
scorching run for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 23.3%
in 2024, according to FactSet — better than any clip for a calendar >>>>> year preceding a White House transition since Reagan took office in
the wake of a 25.8% climb for the S&P in 1980.
Even the inflation rate — the great political weakness of President >>>>> Joe Biden — has come down significantly and remains well within the >>>>> historical norm.
The latest reading of the consumer-price index in November showed
prices rising at a 2.7% annual rate. That’s a bit above the average >>>>> rate since 2000 of 2.6% but below the rate of 3.3% experienced
since 1980.
But ...
“Inflation expectations are up as people wait to see the impact of >>>>> tariff walls … on consumer prices, the impact of a reduced labor
force after undocumented immigrants are sent home, and the effects
of of cutting taxes in an economy already at full employment,” he
added. “Things are fine right now, and confidence is improving, but >>>>> who knows what the future will bring?”
It would be a shame if US wasn't able to exploit illegals to prop
the competitiveness.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-donald-trump-inheriting-the-
best- economy-in-history-bef59427
Trump gets another ride on the coattails of a Demmie fixed economy.
Actually, a recession could be coming,
It's always right around the corner.
if it isn't already there.
First I've heard of this.
S&P500 is in a price bubble, while earnings have not increased in 3
years... which is something you hear media never even mentioning.
Because, as presented by you, it isn't worth mentioning. There was
this pandemic in between. Prices, earnings both plummeted. Then
recovered back to where they were before. And are still climbing.
Nonsense.
https://i.postimg.cc/SNDSjWks/sp500-earnings.png
The same source you nabbed that screenshot from tells us that Q4 of last
year saw a +11% increase in S&P earnings. Best since 2021.
Why go through the trouble of posting screenshots? Easier to just post
the direct link. Which is readily available.
If this is what impending doom looks like, I'd like to have some of that
too. How about it, "riikka"?
TT kirjoitti 14.1.2025 klo 22.23:
Tomorrow US inflation numbers. 0.3% for December expected.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mom
If 0.4, it could become interesting...
0.4 it is.
Aaaaaand... rates shoot down, opposite what I expected.
Because core inflation was 0.2, as expected...
Go figure. :)
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/cpi-inflation-december-2024-.html
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