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  • [meteorology] quality of forcast models

    From Michael Uplawski@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 22 10:55:54 2024
    Good morning

    My attempt to discuss the quality of meteorological models in a
    German speaking newsgroup de.sci.geo >1 has not been successful.

    I began this morning to document what I call a total failure
    2.

    When you do office work, you are probably not aware of the trouble
    that wrong forecasts can create. What I wish is something halfway
    reliable as regards rain and wind. I do not care much for the amount
    of rain, but I do a lot for the wind-speeds.

    All models that I have access to, are failing. I am obliged to
    prepare for just any situation when I go to work outside and
    oftentimes must organise the day differently. Imagine that you move
    a working platform at 6km/h maximal speed when an unexpected CB
    chases you. I do not like that.

    The models that I know for now are GFS, WRF, AROME, IconD2, IconEu,
    ARPEGE.
    ----------------
    1) <news:AABnLGFp6HkAABeG.A3.flnews@ferrat.uplawski.eu>
    2) <https://www.uplawski.eu/meteo/forecast_quality.html>
    --
    “When you feel there is an unfair burdon on your shoulders
    well – that's just the way it is sometimes” (Winston Groom/Forest Gump)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From David Dalton@21:1/5 to Michael Uplawski on Mon Dec 23 01:04:04 2024
    On Dec 22, 2024, Michael Uplawski wrote
    (in article<AABnZ+IqZVkAADyO.A3.flnews@ferrat.uplawski.eu>):

    Good morning

    My attempt to discuss the quality of meteorological models in a
    German speaking newsgroup de.sci.geo >1 has not been successful.

    I began this morning to document what I call a total failure
    2.

    When you do office work, you are probably not aware of the trouble
    that wrong forecasts can create. What I wish is something halfway
    reliable as regards rain and wind. I do not care much for the amount
    of rain, but I do a lot for the wind-speeds.

    All models that I have access to, are failing. I am obliged to
    prepare for just any situation when I go to work outside and
    oftentimes must organise the day differently. Imagine that you move
    a working platform at 6km/h maximal speed when an unexpected CB
    chases you. I do not like that.

    The models that I know for now are GFS, WRF, AROME, IconD2, IconEu,
    ARPEGE.
    ----------------
    1) <news:AABnLGFp6HkAABeG.A3.flnews@ferrat.uplawski.eu> 2)<https://www.uplawski.eu/meteo/forecast_quality.html>

    There has been some talk lately of using AI to extend
    the length of accuracy of forecasts. Perhaps someone
    else on this newsgroup knows more about that than
    I do; I’m a geophysicist, not a meteorologist.

    --
    David Dalton dalton@nfld.com https://www.nfld.com/~dalton (home page) https://www.nfld.com/~dalton/dtales.html Salmon on the Thorns (mystic page) “And now the angry morning; Gives the early signs of warning; You must
    face alone the plans you make; Decisions they will try to break" (S. McL.)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Michael Uplawski@21:1/5 to Michael Uplawski on Sun Feb 2 09:47:55 2025
    Michael Uplawski wrote in sci.geo.meteorology:

    The models that I know for now are GFS, WRF, AROME, IconD2, IconEu,
    ARPEGE.
    ----------------
    2) <https://www.uplawski.eu/meteo/forecast_quality.html>

    I have been a little sick and lost my motivation. The site had not
    been updated as often, as I would like to.

    But after a considerable time that I scrutinize the forecasts by
    IconD2, IiconEU and WRF, I believe that these are the only models
    worth consulting. WRF is sitll much too optimistic as regards
    clould-layers and rain, but otherwise quite reliable.

    My absolute favorite is however IconD2.

    Once you compared IconD2 a few times to Arome or GFS, the latter
    become ridiculous.
    --
    “When you feel there is an unfair burdon on your shoulders
    well – that's just the way it is sometimes” (Winston Groom/Forest Gump)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)