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    From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 23 21:30:56 2024
    "石齊平專欄》美國衰落速度 繫於人 - 時論廣場 中時新聞網

    美國谷歌CEO埃里克.施密特日在史丹佛大學閉門演講曝光,他一群菁英談到AI人類發展的影響現在只是開始,發展AI需要大量資金、人、強大的教育體系和求勝慾望,只有極少數國家能
    為玩家,美國是一個,中國是另一個,在大家有生之年,中美必將為爭奪知識霸權而戰鬥,這將是一場大戰,目美國領先中國,美國有全球一流人,還在繼續吸引人。

    除了人這部分,施密特的其他觀點我都同意。人動向涉及到美國霸權的崛起及其未來,值得進一步商榷。

    美國這個世紀霸權的崛起與二戰關係密切。二戰之,美國只是一個域大國,一場二戰,戰爭經濟僅把美國拉出了1930年代經濟大蕭條的泥淖,也讓美國以戰勝國老大之姿掌握了全球地緣戰
    要地,及主導建構了為美國利益務的國際秩序,更關的是為美國吸了來自全球的人。

    二戰結束,除了美國,全球滿目瘡,全球人渴望和平安全、發展機遇,全世界只有美國有,更何況美國還有當時大家公的良好的價值與體制,全球人因而蜂擁流向美國,追逐美國夢,得
    人者得天下,美國霸權因而崛起,上世紀下葉,特別是1991年蘇聯解體之後世紀末的美國黃金10年,所有指標包括GDP、製造業、貿易、事、科技、太空等,無全球第一,碾壓所有國家。

    歷史風水總是輪流轉。一進入新世紀,911事件、兩場恐戰爭、世紀金海嘯,一連串打擊讓美國陷入了《時代周刊》所稱的地10年,美國運勢開始下行;過,最大的關,是新中國開始崛
    了。

    1949年成立的新中國,在1979年改革開放後迅速走出了中國近代自1840年之後的歷史發展低潮,進入新世紀後更是銳可當,2010年GDP超過日本直追美國,2014年以IMF購買力平價計算之GDP超越美國;與
    同時,中國也先後取代美國成為全球貿易王國與製造業王國,目製造業總產值已是美國的3,超過美、日、德3個過去製造業大國的總和;當然,也應該看到,在科技、太空、事各領域,
    國也與美國有分庭抗禮之勢。就動態競爭的形勢而言,中國的崛起其實意味著美國的衰落,兩者平行,而且存在著互為因果的邏輯關係。

    回頭來看人形勢。中國崛起是全方的崛起,包括教育,中國每年大學畢業超過1100萬 ,理工科近50
    %,總數約為美國的5,點還在於此,而在美國華人科技人的動向。美國整體運勢的下行,華人一貫受到的歧視,加上近年來新麥錫主義的興起,華人科技人造成的巨大精神壓力,
    至因中美關係持續緊張,難讓人聯想起二戰時,美日交戰後,在美日人或日裔被扣留及囚禁的惡夢,華人科技人的回流中國已然開始,這是推力;與此同時,中國的科研水平、科技環境,
    依自然指數顯示的各種已與美國平分秋色的科研指標,則是吸力,一推一吸,形勢比之二戰後已迥然同,施密特或見及此。

    美國的衰落已無懸念,至於速度快慢則繫於人的動向,看來也未必樂觀。

    (作者為鳳凰衛視資深評論員)"

    https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20240823004139-262104?chdtv

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  • From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 24 14:44:05 2024
    也许有人认为鳳凰衛視資深評論員只是他一人之见。以下是几天前在美国Foreign Affairs 发表的文章:
    大小标题是:美国实力基础的坍塌--知识就是力量,美国正在失去它。

    The Crumbling Foundations of American Strength
    Knowledge Is Power—and the United States Is Losing It

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/crumbling-foundations-american-strength-amy-zegart

    “For centuries, a nation’s power stemmed from tangible resources that
    its government could see, measure, and generally control, such as
    populations that could be conscripted, territory that could be
    conquered, navies that could be deployed, and goods that could be
    released or restricted, such as oil.
    ..
    Today, countries increasingly derive power from intangible resources—the knowledge and technologies such as AI that are super-charging economic
    growth, scientific discovery, and military potential.
    ..
    Knowledge power has two essential elements: the ability to innovate and
    the ability to anticipate. The first relates to a country’s capacity to produce and harness technological breakthroughs. The second has to do
    with intelligence.
    ..
    The components of knowledge power can be hard to see and quantify. But a
    good place to start is national educational proficiency levels.
    Overwhelming evidence shows that a well-educated workforce drives
    long-term economic growth. In 1960, East Asia nearly tied sub-Saharan
    Africa for the lowest GDP per capita in the world. Over the next 30
    years, however, East Asia vaulted ahead, spurred in large measure by educational improvements.
    ..
    Gauging a nation’s long-term power prospects also requires measuring the health of its research universities. Companies play an essential role in technological innovation, but the innovation supply chain really begins earlier, in campus labs and classrooms.
    ..

    If education and innovation are key to the United States’ ability to
    project power, then the country’s prospects are on shaky ground.
    American K–12 education is in crisis. Students today are scoring worse
    on proficiency tests than they have in decades and falling behind their
    peers abroad. U.S. universities are struggling, too, as they face
    greater global competition for talent and chronic federal
    underinvestment in the basic research that is vital for long-term
    innovation."

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