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  • Leveraging uncertainty against China and US

    From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 28 16:00:34 2024
    "To maximise the effectiveness of any negotiating strategy, Trump would
    not impose high tariffs immediately. Instead, he would gradually phase
    them in over a two-year or even three-year period, thereby steadily intensifying economic pressure. “I have spoken to President Trump,
    spoken to his team, and I think everyone is on board with a kind of
    forward guidance or phased-in tariff,” Bessent said. “So, you say to President Xi, 60% might be 2.5% a month for 24 months, tell us when
    you’ve had enough.” In another Bloomberg interview, he suggested a
    36-month phase-in. “I think one of the misconceptions is that we would
    snap into tariffs on day one. It would be phased in, and other countries
    would be given the opportunity to open their markets.”

    The goal of Trump’s trade negotiating strategy could be very ambitious.
    “We are at a key geopolitical moment. I see the need for a grand
    economic reordering. Something going back to Bretton Woods or the Treaty
    of Versailles,” the economist said. “There is a very good chance that we are going to have that over the next four years. I want to be part of
    this.” The ultimate objective would be to create a new era of
    international cooperation, involving military and geopolitical
    partnership, balanced trade and consistency of national policies, to
    replace neoliberal globalisation.

    Bessent has described a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” that would be more complex
    and far-reaching than the Plaza and Louvre Accords of the Eighties
    because it would have to embrace China and perhaps other geopolitical
    rivals of the US which pose potential security risks. This new accord
    would need to divide the world economy into three groups depending on
    how closely they are willing to cooperate with US objectives. Bessent
    proposed that “[W]e should make it very clear that there is a green, a yellow, and a red bucket and we let everyone know where they are. Here’s
    what we ask of you and you can choose which bucket you want to be in and here’s what you get for being in the bucket.”"

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/can-scott-bessent-moderate-trumps-tariff-policy/

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  • From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 1 14:02:14 2024
    Here is one criteria for one of the 3 buckets:

    "In a post on Truth Social Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump said
    he would impose a 100% tariff on the BRICS geopolitical coalition of non-Western countries if the group moves away from trading using the
    U.S. dollar.

    “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the
    Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote. “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new
    BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S.
    Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye
    to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”

    “They can go find another ‘sucker!’ There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country
    that tries should wave goodbye to America,” the president-elect added."

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-threatens-100-tariff-brics-countries-abandon-us-dollar-rcna182300

    Will Trump's threat slow down de-dollarization trend?

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