"The two largest state-owned oil companies in China, CNPC and Sinopec,
both issued studies in December that showed that the demand for transportation-sector goods has already peaked, with total demand set to
peak soon. Both expect full-year data for 2024, when released, to show
declines in gasoline and highway diesel usage, which has been
accelerated by the faster-than-previously-expected gains in sales of
electric vehicles (EVs) and the increasing use of natural gas as an
alternative fuel for heavy trucks. The only oil-based transportation
fuels that are still growing are jet fuel and kerosene. Sinopec
forecasts diesel use to fall by 5.5 percent in 2025 from 2024 levels and gasoline use to fall by 2.4 percent. Fully 22 percent of new heavy
trucks sold in the first three quarters of 2024 used natural gas as a
fuel, and EVs are expected to displace 15 percent of gasoline
consumption in 2025 relative to where it would have been otherwise.

The decline in oil use as a transportation fuel is being more than
offset in the short-term by gains in demand for industrial consumption,
which Sinopec shows increasing by 55 percent from 2023 to 2035. Still,
total demand in their forecast tops out in 2027 and begins a gradual
decline as the fall in transportation demand accelerates. CNPC has a
slightly more bullish forecast but still shows the peak for total demand
being reached in 2060."

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-no-longer-driving-global-oil-demand-214239

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