• Trump Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan

    From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 5 17:57:19 2025
    XPost: alt.politics.usa

    Not necessarily a bad move. Given the situation of the US, it could be a brilliant play. Bessent and his team certainly knows what they are
    doing. They probably have at least some scenarios played out in detail. Trump was without doubt informed.

    But how well Trump appreciates the dicey situation is the issue.

    Has Trump botch his own plan? The answer is Yes according to Jonathan
    Chait of theAltantic. The following from Chait's article entitled "Trump
    Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan".

    "By imposing large trade barriers on the entire world, he would create
    an incentive for American business to manufacture and grow all the goods
    the country previously imported.

    Whatever chance this plan had to succeed is already over.

    The key to making it work was to convince businesses that the new
    arrangement is durable. Nobody is going to invest in building new
    factories in the United States to create goods that until last week
    could be imported more cheaply unless they’re certain that the tariffs
    making the domestic version more competitive will stay in place. ...

    Trump’s aides grasped this dynamic. “This is the great onshoring, the
    great reshoring of American jobs and wealth,” Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, declared on “Liberation Day.” The White House accordingly circulated talking points instructing its surrogates not to
    call the tariffs a leverage play to make deals, but to instead describe
    them as a permanent new feature of the global economy. ...

    But not everybody got the idea. ...

    Asked by reporters whether he planned to negotiate the tariff rates,
    the president said, “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”

    Someone seems to have then told Trump that this stance would paralyze
    business investment, because he reversed course immediately, writing on
    Truth Social, “TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”

    However, there is a principle at work here called “No backsies.” Once you’ve said you might negotiate the tariffs, nobody is going to believe
    you when you change your mind and say you’ll never negotiate. ...

    To be sure, signaling openness to negotiation on tariffs is also a plan.
    But it’s a very different plan than attracting massive investment into domestic production. The idea behind this other plan is a game of
    chicken: We think the balance of trade protection is unfavorable to the
    United States, and could be made more favorable by leveling the playing
    field."

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  • From A. Filip@21:1/5 to ltlee1@hotmail.com on Sat Apr 5 20:24:58 2025
    ltlee1@hotmail.com (ltlee1) wrote:
    Not necessarily a bad move. Given the situation of the US, it could be a
    brilliant play. Bessent and his team certainly knows what they are
    doing. They probably have at least some scenarios played out in detail.
    Trump was without doubt informed.

    But how well Trump appreciates the dicey situation is the issue.

    Has Trump botch his own plan? The answer is Yes according to Jonathan
    Chait of theAltantic. The following from Chait's article entitled "Trump
    Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan".

    "By imposing large trade barriers on the entire world, he would create
    an incentive for American business to manufacture and grow all the goods
    the country previously imported.

    Whatever chance this plan had to succeed is already over.

    The key to making it work was to convince businesses that the new
    arrangement is durable. Nobody is going to invest in building new
    factories in the United States to create goods that until last week
    could be imported more cheaply unless they’re certain that the tariffs making the domestic version more competitive will stay in place. ...

    Trump’s aides grasped this dynamic. “This is the great onshoring, the great reshoring of American jobs and wealth,” Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, declared on “Liberation Day.” The White House accordingly circulated talking points instructing its surrogates not to
    call the tariffs a leverage play to make deals, but to instead describe
    them as a permanent new feature of the global economy. ...

    But not everybody got the idea. ...

    Asked by reporters whether he planned to negotiate the tariff rates,
    the president said, “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”

    Someone seems to have then told Trump that this stance would paralyze business investment, because he reversed course immediately, writing on
    Truth Social, “TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”

    However, there is a principle at work here called “No backsies.” Once you’ve said you might negotiate the tariffs, nobody is going to believe
    you when you change your mind and say you’ll never negotiate. ...

    To be sure, signaling openness to negotiation on tariffs is also a plan.
    But it’s a very different plan than attracting massive investment into domestic production. The idea behind this other plan is a game of
    chicken: We think the balance of trade protection is unfavorable to the United States, and could be made more favorable by leveling the playing field."

    It will work "to *some* extent" anyway.
    Trump created "Yet Another Risk to Consider" (unexpected tariffs increases).
    It may itself change balance in "border case" cases.
    It will most likely increase use of "employed in USA"
    as human shields. I do not dare to bet that "The Trump Tariffs Game"
    will be cost effective for USA.

    You should ask how to make "The Trump Effect" work for PRC.

    --
    A. Filip
    | Women, when they are not in love, have all the cold blood of an
    | experienced attorney. (Honore de Balzac)

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Bluto Hogswart@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 5 18:35:01 2025
    XPost: alt.politics.usa

    On Sat, 5 Apr 2025 17:57:19 +0000, ltlee1 wrote:

    Not necessarily a bad move. Given the situation of the US, it could be
    a brilliant play. Bessent and his team certainly knows what they are
    doing. They probably have at least some scenarios played out in
    detail.
    Trump was without doubt informed.

    But how well Trump appreciates the dicey situation is the issue.

    Has Trump botch his own plan? The answer is Yes according to Jonathan
    Chait of theAltantic. The following from Chait's article entitled "Trump
    Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan".

    "By imposing large trade barriers on the entire world, he would create
    an incentive for American business to manufacture and grow all the goods
    the country previously imported.

    Whatever chance this plan had to succeed is already over.

    The key to making it work was to convince businesses that the new
    arrangement is durable. Nobody is going to invest in building new
    factories in the United States to create goods that until last week
    could be imported more cheaply unless they’re certain that the tariffs making the domestic version more competitive will stay in place. ...

    Trump’s aides grasped this dynamic. “This is the great onshoring, the great reshoring of American jobs and wealth,” Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, declared on “Liberation Day.” The White House accordingly circulated talking points instructing its surrogates not to
    call the tariffs a leverage play to make deals, but to instead describe
    them as a permanent new feature of the global economy. ...

    But not everybody got the idea. ...

    Asked by reporters whether he planned to negotiate the tariff rates,
    the president said, “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”

    Someone seems to have then told Trump that this stance would paralyze business investment, because he reversed course immediately, writing on
    Truth Social, “TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”

    However, there is a principle at work here called “No backsies.” Once you’ve said you might negotiate the tariffs, nobody is going to believe
    you when you change your mind and say you’ll never negotiate. ...

    To be sure, signaling openness to negotiation on tariffs is also a plan.
    But it’s a very different plan than attracting massive investment into domestic production. The idea behind this other plan is a game of
    chicken: We think the balance of trade protection is unfavorable to the United States, and could be made more favorable by leveling the playing field."

    What a frickin LIBERAL Moron.....you just can't fix Stupid.....

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  • From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Sat Apr 5 21:50:43 2025
    XPost: alt.politics.usa

    From A. Philip:

    It will work "to *some* extent" anyway.
    Whatever action X done by whoever person Y for whatever purpose Z will
    work to *some* UNDEFINED extent.

    Trump created "Yet Another Risk to Consider" (unexpected tariffs
    increases).
    It may itself change balance in "border case" cases.
    It will most likely increase use of "employed in USA"
    s human shields. I do not dare to bet that "The Trump Tariffs Game"
    will be cost effective for USA.


    You should ask how to make "The Trump Effect" work for PRC.

    Has little idea on how to make "The Trump Effect" work for PRC.
    A simple search on the net would get quite a few results seeing the
    tariff as a GIFT to Xi. Personally, I think China wish the whole Tariff
    thing does not happen.

    If you are interested to know how Trump might be benefiting Beijing, try
    any of the following.

    " Trump gives China's Xi a chance to win over world hit by tariffs
    .. detroitnews

    Donald Trump's Gift to China - The National Interest

    U.S. Tariffs Make Xi Jinping's Day - WSJ

    How China is turning Trump's tariff war into a win - Financial Review

    Trump's Tariffs Give Beijing a Golden Opportunity With Hard-Hit Allies
    ..
    businessinsider

    Punitive or a gift? How five big economies see new Trump tariffs
    .. bbc"

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