Not necessarily a bad move. Given the situation of the US, it could be a brilliant play. Bessent and his team certainly knows what they are
doing. They probably have at least some scenarios played out in detail. Trump was without doubt informed.
But how well Trump appreciates the dicey situation is the issue.
Not necessarily a bad move. Given the situation of the US, it could be a
brilliant play. Bessent and his team certainly knows what they are
doing. They probably have at least some scenarios played out in detail.
Trump was without doubt informed.
But how well Trump appreciates the dicey situation is the issue.
Has Trump botch his own plan? The answer is Yes according to Jonathan
Chait of theAltantic. The following from Chait's article entitled "Trump
Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan".
"By imposing large trade barriers on the entire world, he would create
an incentive for American business to manufacture and grow all the goods
the country previously imported.
Whatever chance this plan had to succeed is already over.
The key to making it work was to convince businesses that the new
arrangement is durable. Nobody is going to invest in building new
factories in the United States to create goods that until last week
could be imported more cheaply unless they’re certain that the tariffs making the domestic version more competitive will stay in place. ...
Trump’s aides grasped this dynamic. “This is the great onshoring, the great reshoring of American jobs and wealth,” Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, declared on “Liberation Day.” The White House accordingly circulated talking points instructing its surrogates not to
call the tariffs a leverage play to make deals, but to instead describe
them as a permanent new feature of the global economy. ...
But not everybody got the idea. ...
Asked by reporters whether he planned to negotiate the tariff rates,
the president said, “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”
Someone seems to have then told Trump that this stance would paralyze business investment, because he reversed course immediately, writing on
Truth Social, “TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”
However, there is a principle at work here called “No backsies.” Once you’ve said you might negotiate the tariffs, nobody is going to believe
you when you change your mind and say you’ll never negotiate. ...
To be sure, signaling openness to negotiation on tariffs is also a plan.
But it’s a very different plan than attracting massive investment into domestic production. The idea behind this other plan is a game of
chicken: We think the balance of trade protection is unfavorable to the United States, and could be made more favorable by leveling the playing field."
Not necessarily a bad move. Given the situation of the US, it could be
a brilliant play. Bessent and his team certainly knows what they are
doing. They probably have at least some scenarios played out in
detail.
Trump was without doubt informed.
But how well Trump appreciates the dicey situation is the issue.
Has Trump botch his own plan? The answer is Yes according to Jonathan
Chait of theAltantic. The following from Chait's article entitled "Trump
Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan".
"By imposing large trade barriers on the entire world, he would create
an incentive for American business to manufacture and grow all the goods
the country previously imported.
Whatever chance this plan had to succeed is already over.
The key to making it work was to convince businesses that the new
arrangement is durable. Nobody is going to invest in building new
factories in the United States to create goods that until last week
could be imported more cheaply unless they’re certain that the tariffs making the domestic version more competitive will stay in place. ...
Trump’s aides grasped this dynamic. “This is the great onshoring, the great reshoring of American jobs and wealth,” Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, declared on “Liberation Day.” The White House accordingly circulated talking points instructing its surrogates not to
call the tariffs a leverage play to make deals, but to instead describe
them as a permanent new feature of the global economy. ...
But not everybody got the idea. ...
Asked by reporters whether he planned to negotiate the tariff rates,
the president said, “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”
Someone seems to have then told Trump that this stance would paralyze business investment, because he reversed course immediately, writing on
Truth Social, “TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”
However, there is a principle at work here called “No backsies.” Once you’ve said you might negotiate the tariffs, nobody is going to believe
you when you change your mind and say you’ll never negotiate. ...
To be sure, signaling openness to negotiation on tariffs is also a plan.
But it’s a very different plan than attracting massive investment into domestic production. The idea behind this other plan is a game of
chicken: We think the balance of trade protection is unfavorable to the United States, and could be made more favorable by leveling the playing field."
It will work "to *some* extent" anyway.Whatever action X done by whoever person Y for whatever purpose Z will
Trump created "Yet Another Risk to Consider" (unexpected tariffs
increases).
It may itself change balance in "border case" cases.
It will most likely increase use of "employed in USA"
s human shields. I do not dare to bet that "The Trump Tariffs Game"
will be cost effective for USA.
You should ask how to make "The Trump Effect" work for PRC.
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