• The Tariff Climbdown: Six Takeaways From Economists and Analysts

    From ltlee1@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 12 17:33:08 2025
    XPost: alt.politics.usa, alt.politics.usa

    "1. This is a bigger-than-expected U-turn.
    Many market watchers were surprised by how much the U.S. and China
    agreed to cut tariffs.

    2. But the trade war is far from over.
    The truce lasts 90 days. However, it could take longer to reach a full
    trade agreement, Macquarie said, based on precedents in the first Trump administration.
    ..

    3. The U.S. hasn't won concessions from Beijing yet. ...

    4. The U.S. will still buy less Chinese stuff.
    With an effective tariff rate of 40%, Chinese exports to the U.S. are
    likely to fall by up to one-third, estimates Williams at Capital
    Economics. While exports would have fallen far more with tariffs above
    100%, this will still mark a dramatic decline in trade between the two
    largest economies.

    5. Fentanyl tariffs are now in focus.
    Economists at Citi say tariffs tied to the U.S. overdose crisis are “low-hanging fruit”—and Beijing has already signaled it is willing to allay Trump’s concerns.

    However, since the U.S. has now slashed “reciprocal” tariffs, scrapping fentanyl tariffs would mean China would be treated much like any other
    trading partner.

    6. And the 'sell-America' trade is in question.

    European stocks have outshone U.S. markets this year, partly because of
    concern about the trade war's impact on U.S. companies. ..."

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