China’s Zero-Covid Policy Is a Pandemic Waiting to Happen
By Emanuel & Osterholm, 1/25/22, New York Times
We can begin to see the future in many Chinese cities, most
prominently in Xi’an, more than 600 miles from Beijing. Last month,
the govt locked down Xi’an’s 13 million residents in response to
a relatively small outbreak of the Delta variant, which is less
transmissible than Omicron. This strict lockdown lasted about
3 weeks. There also has been spread in Tianjin, a city near
Beijing. Alarmingly, epidemiological research on a sizable number
of the people infected with Omicron in Tianjin found that about
95% of them had been fully vaccinated with the Chinese vaccines.
And on Jan. 15, Chinese officials said Beijing’s first case of
the Omicron variant had been found, leading to a localized
lockdown and mass testing.
This spread is most likely sending shudders thru President Xi &
the Chinese leadership. Reflexively, they are likely to clamp
down harder. But a zero-Covid policy means the Chinese will
always be chasing an ever moving target. And they'll never win.
Inevitably this'll have serious economic impacts for China — &
for all of us, given the country’s position in the world economy.
While China remains the production capital of the world, this is
unlikely to be sustainable should lockdowns ensue. Businesses
outside of China are likely to become increasingly hesitant to
partner with Chinese ventures when they're unable to enter the
country to meet partners & inspect factories that face unpredict-
able closings. Declines in Chinese production would upend supply
chains and the availability of goods everywhere, including in the
United States.
Other countries can provide a road map that China can put into
action. Denmark, Germany and some other Euro countries, as well
as Australia, have achieved strong immunity without suffering
the U.S. death rate. They used effective vaccines, made smarter
decisions about when and where to impose lockdowns and protected
the most vulnerable — older people and those with compromised
immune systems. Community spread resulted, but it would have
been inevitable, even with longer or more severe lockdowns,
and it allowed those countries to build up immunity.
China’s elaborate containment efforts planned for the Olympics
may prevent a Covid outbreak — and we certainly hope that is the
case. But a zero-Covid policy is a losing long-term strategy.
Ezekiel J. Emanuel is a physician, vice provost for global
initiatives and a prof of medical ethics and health policy at the
U. of Pennsylvania. Michael T. Osterholm is an epidemiologist &
director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy
at the U. of Minnesota.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/25/opinion/china-covid-19.html
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