"SH: Like all sanctions, those being imposed on Russia are economic weapons that are being deployed in what is, in fact, an undeclared war against Russia. And like all sanctions, they have proved to be totally ineffective in accomplishing their statedgoal of changing Russia’s behavior.
Sanctions have never won a war. And if that’s not bad enough, sanctions have been, as economic sanctions often are, counterproductive. Indeed, instead of toppling Vladimir Putin’s regime, the sanctions have done what they typically do: they havecreated a “rally ’round the flag effect,” which has further entrenched Putin and his associates.
...hoc and partial – just the tip of the iceberg – indicate that the costs of sanctions will be eye-popping.
We don’t have any official total cost estimates, ... we do have a scattering of cost estimates on the Russian sanctions from investment banks, central banks, international organizations like the IMF, and NGOs. Those estimates, which are somewhat ad
Does the US have the capacity to replace Russian gas?or vice-president, will decide who to sell their wares to. Furthermore, those US companies don’t have the capacity to fill the voids that will be created by Brussels’ bans on the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
SH: In a word, “No.” President Biden and Vice-President [Kamala] Harris have been busy promising oil and gas to every cat and dog who indicates a need. The problem is that private companies produce oil and gas in the US, and they, not the president
...case."
SH: The impact on the EU countries, with perhaps the exception of Hungary, of the ban on Russian oil and gas and the blocking of insurers from covering Russian cargoes will be very negative and severe.
The US will not escape unharmed. The global oil and gas markets will become politicized and balkanized, with oil not flowing as freely as it has for the past four decades. As a result, everyone will end up paying more than would have otherwise been the
https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/how-the-west-miscalculated-its-ability-to-punish-russia/
"SH: Like all sanctions, those being imposed on Russia are economic
weapons that are being deployed in what is, in fact, an undeclared war against Russia. And like all sanctions, they have proved to be totally ineffective in accomplishing their stated goal of changing Russia’s behavior.
Sanctions have never won a war. And if that’s not bad enough,
sanctions have been, as economic sanctions often are,
counterproductive. Indeed, instead of toppling Vladimir Putin’s
regime, the sanctions have done what they typically do: they have
created a “rally ’round the flag effect,” which has further entrenched Putin and his associates.
...
We don’t have any official total cost estimates, ... we do have a scattering of cost estimates on the Russian sanctions from investment
banks, central banks, international organizations like the IMF, and
NGOs. Those estimates, which are somewhat ad hoc and partial – just
the tip of the iceberg – indicate that the costs of sanctions will be eye-popping.
Does the US have the capacity to replace Russian gas?
SH: In a word, “No.” President Biden and Vice-President [Kamala]
Harris have been busy promising oil and gas to every cat and dog who indicates a need. The problem is that private companies produce oil
and gas in the US, and they, not the president or vice-president, will
decide who to sell their wares to. Furthermore, those US companies
don’t have the capacity to fill the voids that will be created by Brussels’ bans on the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
...
SH: The impact on the EU countries, with perhaps the exception of
Hungary, of the ban on Russian oil and gas and the blocking of
insurers from covering Russian cargoes will be very negative and
severe.
The US will not escape unharmed. The global oil and gas markets will
become politicized and balkanized, with oil not flowing as freely as
it has for the past four decades. As a result, everyone will end up
paying more than would have otherwise been the case."
https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/how-the-west-miscalculated-its-ability-to-punish-russia/
ltlee1 wrote:
"SH: Like all sanctions, those being imposed on Russia are economic weapons that are being deployed in what is, in fact, an undeclared war against Russia. And like all sanctions, they have proved to be totally ineffective in accomplishing their stated goal of changing Russia’s behavior.
Sanctions have never won a war. And if that’s not bad enough,
sanctions have been, as economic sanctions often are,
counterproductive. Indeed, instead of toppling Vladimir Putin’s
regime, the sanctions have done what they typically do: they have
created a “rally ’round the flag effect,” which has further entrenched
Putin and his associates.
...
We don’t have any official total cost estimates, ... we do have a scattering of cost estimates on the Russian sanctions from investment banks, central banks, international organizations like the IMF, and
NGOs. Those estimates, which are somewhat ad hoc and partial – just
the tip of the iceberg – indicate that the costs of sanctions will be eye-popping.
Does the US have the capacity to replace Russian gas?
SH: In a word, “No.” President Biden and Vice-President [Kamala] Harris have been busy promising oil and gas to every cat and dog who indicates a need. The problem is that private companies produce oil
and gas in the US, and they, not the president or vice-president, will decide who to sell their wares to. Furthermore, those US companies
don’t have the capacity to fill the voids that will be created by Brussels’ bans on the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
...
SH: The impact on the EU countries, with perhaps the exception of
Hungary, of the ban on Russian oil and gas and the blocking of
insurers from covering Russian cargoes will be very negative and
severe.
The US will not escape unharmed. The global oil and gas markets will become politicized and balkanized, with oil not flowing as freely as
it has for the past four decades. As a result, everyone will end up
paying more than would have otherwise been the case."
https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/how-the-west-miscalculated-its-ability-to-punish-russia/1. Are economic sanction cheaper than a big military war (other than blitzkrieg)?
2. "Round the flag effect" is quite likely in *short* term (a few tears max).
3. In *longer* term (5 years+) Russia will sell to other (non E.U.) markets. EU ban will make Russian oil cheaper e.g. for PRC.
USA+EU in practice "accepted" annexation of Crimea in step 1. Two people republics were step 2. Open Russian invasion is step 3. What's going
to be step 4 without *strong* (economic) reaction?
Chamberlain's "Peace in our times" (1938 UK+France and nazi-Germany"
does not work with Putin too IMHO. Two years later (1940) conquered
half of France in a few weeks.
Economic sanctions *will be* costly (mostly) for EU but lack of sanctions may be *MUCH* more costly, costly as World War Two (in Europe).
So it is not a matter of "Is it going to be cheap?".
It is a matter of "Is it worth to be done?".
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