Economist.om article Headline:
"It will take time for China’s consumers to recover from lockdown" Subline:
"Some lost consumption will be lost forever"
https://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown
The Economist article meant to calculate China's economic lost due to its dynamic zero Covid policy.
Actually, the simplest method is using the method of "year of life lost" adjusted by an economic activity factor.
According to the following Nature.com article
What if a city such as Shanghai has a population of 16 million was locked down for three months?ongoing. In contrast, traveling and eating out and impulse purchase would be zero. But they could still order whatever they want through the internet.
Applying the same year of life lost to people killed: IF all the residents were temporarily dead for 3 months, the total year of life lost would be about 64 million years. (16*16/4=64)
Of course, the people were not dead and they had to consume to remain alive. Consumption of food, fluid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy, as well as regulate health maintenance either provided to them freely or at a price is still
IF I were a Shanghai resident during the lock down, lost consumption would be less than 3% of normal consumption. Others could be higher.
IF we assume 10% on the average, total lost consumption was equivalent to 6.4 million years of life. On the positive side, of course, is the number of lives not killed and/or degraded by COVID virus in Shanghai as well as other parts of China.
Economist.com has an article trying to figure out China's lost consumption due to its zero-Covid policy.what they want to buy online.
ttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown
I think a "years of life lost" would be more straight forward.
According to the following Nature.com article, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3
About 16 years of life were lost for every death.
Shanghai with a population 16 million was locked down for 3 months. IF all Shanghai residents were temporarily death, the total of 4 million years of life would be lost to consumption.
But of course, they were not dead while locked down. They still have to consume food, liquid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy and regular health maintenance and other services delivered online. Of course, they could still order
IF we assume they on the average reduced consumption by 10%, the total years of life lost to consumption would be 0.4 million years. On the positive side, their lost consumption save millions from sickness and death in other Shanghai residents and allover China.
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