"(Bloomberg) -- Economist Nouriel Roubini said there are two options for the US economy, given the Federal Reserve’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in decades: an economic hard landing or inflation at a persistently elevated level.Power With David Westin” Monday.
“The fed funds rate should be going well above 4% -- 4.5%-5% in my view -- to really push inflation towards 2%,” the chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of
“If that doesn’t happen, inflation expectations are going to get unhinged,” said Roubini, whose prescience on the housing bubble that led to the US financial crisis of more than a decade ago earned him the nickname Dr. Doom. “Or if that happens,then we are going to have a hard landing. Either way, either you get a hard landing or you get inflation getting out of control.”
The central bank’s latest dot plot of interest-rate projections published after the June policy meeting suggests that the federal funds rate will reach around 3.375% by the end of this year and almost 3.8% by the end of 2023. That’s not hawkishenough, said Roubini.
“Even if you have 3.8%, we have inflation still well above target around 8%, falling only gradually,” he said. “Markets expecting a pivot and the Fed cutting rates next year to me sounds delusional.”
Roubini joins a chorus of prominent economists, including Goldman Sachs & Co. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, who think it will be difficult for the central bank to avoid a deep and painful recession, also known as a hard landing.
“In the US, whenever you had inflation above 5% and unemployment below 5%, the Fed tightening has led to a hard landing,” Roubini said. “So my baseline is a hard landing.”"
On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 6:13:50 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:Power With David Westin” Monday.
"(Bloomberg) -- Economist Nouriel Roubini said there are two options for the US economy, given the Federal Reserve’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in decades: an economic hard landing or inflation at a persistently elevated level.
“The fed funds rate should be going well above 4% -- 4.5%-5% in my view -- to really push inflation towards 2%,” the chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of
happens, then we are going to have a hard landing. Either way, either you get a hard landing or you get inflation getting out of control.”“If that doesn’t happen, inflation expectations are going to get unhinged,” said Roubini, whose prescience on the housing bubble that led to the US financial crisis of more than a decade ago earned him the nickname Dr. Doom. “Or if that
enough, said Roubini.The central bank’s latest dot plot of interest-rate projections published after the June policy meeting suggests that the federal funds rate will reach around 3.375% by the end of this year and almost 3.8% by the end of 2023. That’s not hawkish
reduced. If lower and middle people can get more pay to defray their higher costs of living, the new normal of inflation rate will be the norm in the future. In short, the days of living in previous costs of living will not be back anymore. A hard“Even if you have 3.8%, we have inflation still well above target around 8%, falling only gradually,” he said. “Markets expecting a pivot and the Fed cutting rates next year to me sounds delusional.”
Roubini joins a chorus of prominent economists, including Goldman Sachs & Co. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, who think it will be difficult for the central bank to avoid a deep and painful recession, also known as a hard landing.
“In the US, whenever you had inflation above 5% and unemployment below 5%, the Fed tightening has led to a hard landing,” Roubini said. “So my baseline is a hard landing.”"A hard landing is the best "middle of the road way" to say it. Given disruptions around world are recovering at different reconnected pace of life, higher costs will remain until supply is smoothed out over shortages. Only then, will inflation be
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