https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured
Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
It didn’t work out that way.had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration thought it
The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was helpingRussia in its war in Ukraine.
Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production betweenSeptember and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.
...
--------------------------------------
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured
Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
It didn’t work out that way.had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration thought it
The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was helpingRussia in its war in Ukraine.
Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production betweenSeptember and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.
...
--------------------------------------
On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:53:08 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured
Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.It didn’t work out that way.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration thought
Russia in its war in Ukraine.The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was helping
September and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production between
...Dissing in Progress:
--------------------------------------
1. Saudi Refusal
"NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mohammed bin Salman isn’t taking Joe Biden’s calls. Saudi Arabia’s
de facto leader has ignored pleas from the American president to pump more oil after the United States and Britain
boycotted Russian output, the Wall Street Journal reported. "
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/saudis-mbs-will-eventually-take-bidens-call-2022-03-10/
2. A Presidential Trip
"Biden administration officials began planning in the spring for the president to make a summit stop in
Saudi Arabia while also visiting Israel over the summer. They knew such a trip would bring criticism: Mr. Biden had
denounced Prince Mohammed during the presidential campaign, had ordered the declassification of an intelligence
assessment that the prince likely ordered the killing of Mr. Khashoggi and had thus far in his presidency refused to
have a one-on-one meeting with the crown prince.
But some of the president’s aides saw both short- and long-term benefits for the trip and had quietly tried to repair the
relationship. They said it was important to work with the kingdom on the Yemen war and Iran, and to expand Israel’s
acceptance in the region. More immediately, they believed, the trip could shore up a Saudi commitment to convince
OPEC to increase oil production as Russia’s war in Ukraine had led to surging global fuel prices."
3. The Secret Deal
"American officials said that in May, they reached a private oil deal with the Saudis that had two parts.
First, the Saudis would accelerate an OPEC Plus production increase of 400,000 barrels per day already planned for
September, moving it to July and August. Then the Saudis would get the cartel to announce a further production increase
of 200,000 barrels per day for each month from September to December of this year.
American officials said they hoped the announcements of gradual increases would signal to the markets that the Saudis
were willing to address supply issues."
4. Public Theater
"On June 2, OPEC Plus announced they would move up the production increase scheduled for September — fulfilling the
first part of the secret deal.
That same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a trip to Saudi Arabia."
5. Warning and Reassurance
"The Americans came away from the summit with the belief that the agreement was on track and that Prince Mohammed
was satisfied. But in Riyadh, top Saudi officials were privately telling others that they had no plans for further meaningful
oil production increases.
Indeed, the first public warning of this came on Aug. 3, when OPEC Plus announced a paltry bump in production for September
of 100,000 barrels a day — half of what U.S. officials believed the Saudis had promised them.
American officials said they did not understand why that decision was made. Then OPEC Plus announced on Sept. 5 it would
cut production by 100,000 barrels per day — retracting the increase it had announced a month earlier. After that, U.S. officials
were increasingly confused and concerned about the kingdom’s direction.
In late September, American officials began hearing that Saudi Arabia could get OPEC Plus to announce a deep cut to oil
production at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 5. U.S. officials scrambled to get Prince Mohammed to back away from any such
move. ...
On Sept. 24, American officials met in person in the kingdom with Prince Mohammed and his brother Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman,
the Saudi energy minister. During the meeting, Prince Mohammed assured the Americans that there would be no production cuts,
according to U.S. officials with direct knowledge of what transpired."
6. October Surprise
"But four days after that, the White House learned the crown prince had done the opposite: Saudi officials notified the Americans
that Saudi Arabia would back production cuts at the OPEC Plus meeting, which took place in Vienna."
What Next?
What would the US do to help the oil market?
What would it do to punish Saudi Arabia?
On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 6:25:55 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:53:08 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured
Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
thought it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.It didn’t work out that way.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration
helping Russia in its war in Ukraine.The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was
September and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production between
...Dissing in Progress:
--------------------------------------
1. Saudi Refusal
"NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mohammed bin Salman isn’t taking Joe Biden’s calls. Saudi Arabia’s
de facto leader has ignored pleas from the American president to pump more oil after the United States and Britain
boycotted Russian output, the Wall Street Journal reported. "
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/saudis-mbs-will-eventually-take-bidens-call-2022-03-10/
2. A Presidential Trip
"Biden administration officials began planning in the spring for the president to make a summit stop in
Saudi Arabia while also visiting Israel over the summer. They knew such a trip would bring criticism: Mr. Biden had
denounced Prince Mohammed during the presidential campaign, had ordered the declassification of an intelligence
assessment that the prince likely ordered the killing of Mr. Khashoggi and had thus far in his presidency refused to
have a one-on-one meeting with the crown prince.
But some of the president’s aides saw both short- and long-term benefits for the trip and had quietly tried to repair the
relationship. They said it was important to work with the kingdom on the Yemen war and Iran, and to expand Israel’s
acceptance in the region. More immediately, they believed, the trip could shore up a Saudi commitment to convince
OPEC to increase oil production as Russia’s war in Ukraine had led to surging global fuel prices."
3. The Secret Deal
"American officials said that in May, they reached a private oil deal with the Saudis that had two parts.
First, the Saudis would accelerate an OPEC Plus production increase of 400,000 barrels per day already planned for
September, moving it to July and August. Then the Saudis would get the cartel to announce a further production increase
of 200,000 barrels per day for each month from September to December of this year.
American officials said they hoped the announcements of gradual increases would signal to the markets that the Saudis
were willing to address supply issues."
4. Public Theater
"On June 2, OPEC Plus announced they would move up the production increase scheduled for September — fulfilling the
first part of the secret deal.
That same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a trip to Saudi Arabia."
5. Warning and Reassurance
"The Americans came away from the summit with the belief that the agreement was on track and that Prince Mohammed
was satisfied. But in Riyadh, top Saudi officials were privately telling others that they had no plans for further meaningful
oil production increases.
Indeed, the first public warning of this came on Aug. 3, when OPEC Plus announced a paltry bump in production for September
of 100,000 barrels a day — half of what U.S. officials believed the Saudis had promised them.
American officials said they did not understand why that decision was made. Then OPEC Plus announced on Sept. 5 it would
cut production by 100,000 barrels per day — retracting the increase it had announced a month earlier. After that, U.S. officials
were increasingly confused and concerned about the kingdom’s direction.
In late September, American officials began hearing that Saudi Arabia could get OPEC Plus to announce a deep cut to oil
production at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 5. U.S. officials scrambled to get Prince Mohammed to back away from any such
move. ...
On Sept. 24, American officials met in person in the kingdom with Prince Mohammed and his brother Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman,
the Saudi energy minister. During the meeting, Prince Mohammed assured the Americans that there would be no production cuts,
according to U.S. officials with direct knowledge of what transpired."
6. October Surprise
"But four days after that, the White House learned the crown prince had done the opposite: Saudi officials notified the Americans
that Saudi Arabia would back production cuts at the OPEC Plus meeting, which took place in Vienna."
What Next?Of course the Biden government can ask American producers to increase input which would increase total supply and impede inflation.
What would the US do to help the oil market?
Will US producers comply?
Biden made the same request last year. The answer he got was a big 'NO'. Well, high energy price IS always good for the bottom line. In addition, the producers did not like Biden that much. If Biden was to suffer politically, it
was "the cherry on top of a very, very lucrative cake."
Needless to say, high energy price is still good for corporate profit today. Do American producers like Biden now? My bet: Unlikely.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Real-Reason-Big-Oil-Is-Refusing-To-Boost-Production.html
"Over the last couple of weeks, a stand-off has been developing between President Joe Biden
and shale oil and gas producers in West Texas. As soaring gas prices add pressure to cash-
strapped United States residents already feeling the pressure of inflation, the economic strain
is reflecting poorly on the Biden administration, which is scrambling to get someone, anyone --
be it OPEC or producers in the Permian Basin -- to open the taps and ease supply shortages. So
far, however, Big Oil isn’t budging.
There is a lot of speculation about the many reasons this may be the case. Pundits have
pontificated about the political dimensions of the standoff, noting that the right-leaning fossil
fuels industry has little incentive to help out an administration that they see as antithetical and
threatening to their livelihoods. For his part, President Biden has accused the oil and gas industry
of potentially "illegal conduct" as oil execs get rich(er) off of soaring oil prices and has called for
a federal investigation into the matter.
But, according to other sources, the real reason that Big Oil won’t raise production is a matter of
simple economics. Keeping the supply tight is just too good for the bottom line. And if it’s President
Biden who will take the heat for high prices at the pumps, that’s just the cherry on top of a very,
very lucrative cake."
What would it do to punish Saudi Arabia?
On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 6:25:55 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:53:08 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured
Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
thought it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.It didn’t work out that way.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration
helping Russia in its war in Ukraine.The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was
September and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production between
...Dissing in Progress:
--------------------------------------
1. Saudi Refusal
"NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mohammed bin Salman isn’t taking Joe Biden’s calls. Saudi Arabia’s
de facto leader has ignored pleas from the American president to pump more oil after the United States and Britain
boycotted Russian output, the Wall Street Journal reported. "
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/saudis-mbs-will-eventually-take-bidens-call-2022-03-10/
2. A Presidential Trip
"Biden administration officials began planning in the spring for the president to make a summit stop in
Saudi Arabia while also visiting Israel over the summer. They knew such a trip would bring criticism: Mr. Biden had
denounced Prince Mohammed during the presidential campaign, had ordered the declassification of an intelligence
assessment that the prince likely ordered the killing of Mr. Khashoggi and had thus far in his presidency refused to
have a one-on-one meeting with the crown prince.
But some of the president’s aides saw both short- and long-term benefits for the trip and had quietly tried to repair the
relationship. They said it was important to work with the kingdom on the Yemen war and Iran, and to expand Israel’s
acceptance in the region. More immediately, they believed, the trip could shore up a Saudi commitment to convince
OPEC to increase oil production as Russia’s war in Ukraine had led to surging global fuel prices."
3. The Secret Deal
"American officials said that in May, they reached a private oil deal with the Saudis that had two parts.
First, the Saudis would accelerate an OPEC Plus production increase of 400,000 barrels per day already planned for
September, moving it to July and August. Then the Saudis would get the cartel to announce a further production increase
of 200,000 barrels per day for each month from September to December of this year.
American officials said they hoped the announcements of gradual increases would signal to the markets that the Saudis
were willing to address supply issues."
4. Public Theater
"On June 2, OPEC Plus announced they would move up the production increase scheduled for September — fulfilling the
first part of the secret deal.
That same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a trip to Saudi Arabia."
5. Warning and Reassurance
"The Americans came away from the summit with the belief that the agreement was on track and that Prince Mohammed
was satisfied. But in Riyadh, top Saudi officials were privately telling others that they had no plans for further meaningful
oil production increases.
Indeed, the first public warning of this came on Aug. 3, when OPEC Plus announced a paltry bump in production for September
of 100,000 barrels a day — half of what U.S. officials believed the Saudis had promised them.
American officials said they did not understand why that decision was made. Then OPEC Plus announced on Sept. 5 it would
cut production by 100,000 barrels per day — retracting the increase it had announced a month earlier. After that, U.S. officials
were increasingly confused and concerned about the kingdom’s direction.
In late September, American officials began hearing that Saudi Arabia could get OPEC Plus to announce a deep cut to oil
production at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 5. U.S. officials scrambled to get Prince Mohammed to back away from any such
move. ...
On Sept. 24, American officials met in person in the kingdom with Prince Mohammed and his brother Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman,
the Saudi energy minister. During the meeting, Prince Mohammed assured the Americans that there would be no production cuts,
according to U.S. officials with direct knowledge of what transpired."
6. October Surprise
"But four days after that, the White House learned the crown prince had done the opposite: Saudi officials notified the Americans
that Saudi Arabia would back production cuts at the OPEC Plus meeting, which took place in Vienna."
What Next?Of course the Biden government can ask American producers to increase input which would increase total supply and impede inflation.
What would the US do to help the oil market?
Will US producers comply?
Biden made the same request last year. The answer he got was a big 'NO'. Well, high energy price IS always good for the bottom line. In addition, the producers did not like Biden that much. If Biden was to suffer politically, it
was "the cherry on top of a very, very lucrative cake."
Needless to say, high energy price is still good for corporate profit today. Do American producers like Biden now? My bet: Unlikely.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Real-Reason-Big-Oil-Is-Refusing-To-Boost-Production.html
"Over the last couple of weeks, a stand-off has been developing between President Joe Biden
and shale oil and gas producers in West Texas. As soaring gas prices add pressure to cash-
strapped United States residents already feeling the pressure of inflation, the economic strain
is reflecting poorly on the Biden administration, which is scrambling to get someone, anyone --
be it OPEC or producers in the Permian Basin -- to open the taps and ease supply shortages. So
far, however, Big Oil isn’t budging.
There is a lot of speculation about the many reasons this may be the case. Pundits have
pontificated about the political dimensions of the standoff, noting that the right-leaning fossil
fuels industry has little incentive to help out an administration that they see as antithetical and
threatening to their livelihoods. For his part, President Biden has accused the oil and gas industry
of potentially "illegal conduct" as oil execs get rich(er) off of soaring oil prices and has called for
a federal investigation into the matter.
But, according to other sources, the real reason that Big Oil won’t raise production is a matter of
simple economics. Keeping the supply tight is just too good for the bottom line. And if it’s President
Biden who will take the heat for high prices at the pumps, that’s just the cherry on top of a very,
very lucrative cake."
On Monday, October 31, 2022 at 1:59:52 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 6:25:55 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:53:08 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
thought it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.It didn’t work out that way.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration
helping Russia in its war in Ukraine.The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was
September and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production between
...Dissing in Progress:
--------------------------------------
1. Saudi Refusal
"NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mohammed bin Salman isn’t taking Joe Biden’s calls. Saudi Arabia’s
de facto leader has ignored pleas from the American president to pump more oil after the United States and Britain
boycotted Russian output, the Wall Street Journal reported. "
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/saudis-mbs-will-eventually-take-bidens-call-2022-03-10/
2. A Presidential Trip
"Biden administration officials began planning in the spring for the president to make a summit stop in
Saudi Arabia while also visiting Israel over the summer. They knew such a trip would bring criticism: Mr. Biden had
denounced Prince Mohammed during the presidential campaign, had ordered the declassification of an intelligence
assessment that the prince likely ordered the killing of Mr. Khashoggi and had thus far in his presidency refused to
have a one-on-one meeting with the crown prince.
But some of the president’s aides saw both short- and long-term benefits for the trip and had quietly tried to repair the
relationship. They said it was important to work with the kingdom on the Yemen war and Iran, and to expand Israel’s
acceptance in the region. More immediately, they believed, the trip could shore up a Saudi commitment to convince
OPEC to increase oil production as Russia’s war in Ukraine had led to surging global fuel prices."
3. The Secret Deal
"American officials said that in May, they reached a private oil deal with the Saudis that had two parts.
First, the Saudis would accelerate an OPEC Plus production increase of 400,000 barrels per day already planned for
September, moving it to July and August. Then the Saudis would get the cartel to announce a further production increase
of 200,000 barrels per day for each month from September to December of this year.
American officials said they hoped the announcements of gradual increases would signal to the markets that the Saudis
were willing to address supply issues."
4. Public Theater
"On June 2, OPEC Plus announced they would move up the production increase scheduled for September — fulfilling the
first part of the secret deal.
That same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a trip to Saudi Arabia."
5. Warning and Reassurance
"The Americans came away from the summit with the belief that the agreement was on track and that Prince Mohammed
was satisfied. But in Riyadh, top Saudi officials were privately telling others that they had no plans for further meaningful
oil production increases.
Indeed, the first public warning of this came on Aug. 3, when OPEC Plus announced a paltry bump in production for September
of 100,000 barrels a day — half of what U.S. officials believed the Saudis had promised them.
American officials said they did not understand why that decision was made. Then OPEC Plus announced on Sept. 5 it would
cut production by 100,000 barrels per day — retracting the increase it had announced a month earlier. After that, U.S. officials
were increasingly confused and concerned about the kingdom’s direction.
In late September, American officials began hearing that Saudi Arabia could get OPEC Plus to announce a deep cut to oil
production at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 5. U.S. officials scrambled to get Prince Mohammed to back away from any such
move. ...
On Sept. 24, American officials met in person in the kingdom with Prince Mohammed and his brother Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman,
the Saudi energy minister. During the meeting, Prince Mohammed assured the Americans that there would be no production cuts,
according to U.S. officials with direct knowledge of what transpired."
6. October Surprise
"But four days after that, the White House learned the crown prince had done the opposite: Saudi officials notified the Americans
that Saudi Arabia would back production cuts at the OPEC Plus meeting, which took place in Vienna."
What Next?Of course the Biden government can ask American producers to increase input which would increase total supply and impede inflation.
What would the US do to help the oil market?
Will US producers comply?
Biden made the same request last year. The answer he got was a big 'NO'. Well, high energy price IS always good for the bottom line. In addition, the
producers did not like Biden that much. If Biden was to suffer politically, it
was "the cherry on top of a very, very lucrative cake."
Needless to say, high energy price is still good for corporate profit today.
Do American producers like Biden now? My bet: Unlikely.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Real-Reason-Big-Oil-Is-Refusing-To-Boost-Production.html
"Over the last couple of weeks, a stand-off has been developing between President Joe Biden
and shale oil and gas producers in West Texas. As soaring gas prices add pressure to cash-
strapped United States residents already feeling the pressure of inflation, the economic strain
is reflecting poorly on the Biden administration, which is scrambling to get someone, anyone --
be it OPEC or producers in the Permian Basin -- to open the taps and ease supply shortages. So
far, however, Big Oil isn’t budging.
There is a lot of speculation about the many reasons this may be the case. Pundits have
pontificated about the political dimensions of the standoff, noting that the right-leaning fossil
fuels industry has little incentive to help out an administration that they see as antithetical and
threatening to their livelihoods. For his part, President Biden has accused the oil and gas industry
of potentially "illegal conduct" as oil execs get rich(er) off of soaring oil prices and has called for
a federal investigation into the matter.
But, according to other sources, the real reason that Big Oil won’t raise production is a matter of“ Saturday Night Live skit ” one year later. Biden asked oil producers to boost production.
simple economics. Keeping the supply tight is just too good for the bottom line. And if it’s President
Biden who will take the heat for high prices at the pumps, that’s just the cherry on top of a very,
very lucrative cake."
Oil producers said "NO".
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-feud-big-oil-ratchets-123000039.html
"Diesel and heating oil inventories in the US Northeast were getting worryingly low.
Officials swung into action, organizing a series of calls between Energy Secretary
Jennifer Granholm and several of the country’s biggest oil refiners to discuss
strategies to boost stockpiles. The tone was cordial, according to people with
knowledge of the conversations.
But the very next working day, the oil industry was blindsided. At a hastily arranged
press conference on Oct. 31, President Joe Biden castigated Big Oil for handing
“outrageous” profits to shareholders and executives rather than bringing down prices
at the pump. Unless that changed, he warned, oil companies faced more taxes. “Their
profits are a windfall of war -- the windfall from the brutal conflict that’s ravaging
Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe,” he said.
It was just the kind of whiplash that has repeatedly sown mistrust and stoked tensions
with the fossil fuel industry over the course of the Biden administration, according to
multiple interviews with executives and lobbyists involved in oil and gas, who declined
to be identified because the meetings and conversations they described were private.
...
While they were never under any illusions about the president’s green ambitions, oil industry
insiders say they’ve become increasingly unhappy with a series of conflicting policy
priorities -- for example, moving within a matter of months from a halt on federal leasing for
oil drilling to demanding more production -- and unrealistic requests such as spending billions
of dollars to rapidly add more refining capacity.
Unwilling to act as fall guys for surging household fuel bills in the run-up to the midterm
elections, typically low-profile industry figures are becoming more outspoken. Last week, the
chief executive officers of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. issued grave warnings about
potential windfall taxes. Marshall McCrea, co-CEO of pipeline operator Energy Transfer LP, said
this week that US energy policy is so all over the map that it’s becoming like “a Saturday Night
Live skit.”
l an
“It’d be funny if it wasn’t so tragically sad,” he added."
On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:53:08 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured
Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.It didn’t work out that way.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration thought
Russia in its war in Ukraine.The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was helping
September and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production between
On punishing Saudi Arabia:...Dissing in Progress:
--------------------------------------
1. Saudi Refusal
"NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mohammed bin Salman isn’t taking Joe Biden’s calls. Saudi Arabia’s
de facto leader has ignored pleas from the American president to pump more oil after the United States and Britain
boycotted Russian output, the Wall Street Journal reported. "
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/saudis-mbs-will-eventually-take-bidens-call-2022-03-10/
2. A Presidential Trip
"Biden administration officials began planning in the spring for the president to make a summit stop in
Saudi Arabia while also visiting Israel over the summer. They knew such a trip would bring criticism: Mr. Biden had
denounced Prince Mohammed during the presidential campaign, had ordered the declassification of an intelligence
assessment that the prince likely ordered the killing of Mr. Khashoggi and had thus far in his presidency refused to
have a one-on-one meeting with the crown prince.
But some of the president’s aides saw both short- and long-term benefits for the trip and had quietly tried to repair the
relationship. They said it was important to work with the kingdom on the Yemen war and Iran, and to expand Israel’s
acceptance in the region. More immediately, they believed, the trip could shore up a Saudi commitment to convince
OPEC to increase oil production as Russia’s war in Ukraine had led to surging global fuel prices."
3. The Secret Deal
"American officials said that in May, they reached a private oil deal with the Saudis that had two parts.
First, the Saudis would accelerate an OPEC Plus production increase of 400,000 barrels per day already planned for
September, moving it to July and August. Then the Saudis would get the cartel to announce a further production increase
of 200,000 barrels per day for each month from September to December of this year.
American officials said they hoped the announcements of gradual increases would signal to the markets that the Saudis
were willing to address supply issues."
4. Public Theater
"On June 2, OPEC Plus announced they would move up the production increase scheduled for September — fulfilling the
first part of the secret deal.
That same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a trip to Saudi Arabia."
5. Warning and Reassurance
"The Americans came away from the summit with the belief that the agreement was on track and that Prince Mohammed
was satisfied. But in Riyadh, top Saudi officials were privately telling others that they had no plans for further meaningful
oil production increases.
Indeed, the first public warning of this came on Aug. 3, when OPEC Plus announced a paltry bump in production for September
of 100,000 barrels a day — half of what U.S. officials believed the Saudis had promised them.
American officials said they did not understand why that decision was made. Then OPEC Plus announced on Sept. 5 it would
cut production by 100,000 barrels per day — retracting the increase it had announced a month earlier. After that, U.S. officials
were increasingly confused and concerned about the kingdom’s direction.
In late September, American officials began hearing that Saudi Arabia could get OPEC Plus to announce a deep cut to oil
production at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 5. U.S. officials scrambled to get Prince Mohammed to back away from any such
move. ...
On Sept. 24, American officials met in person in the kingdom with Prince Mohammed and his brother Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman,
the Saudi energy minister. During the meeting, Prince Mohammed assured the Americans that there would be no production cuts,
according to U.S. officials with direct knowledge of what transpired."
6. October Surprise
"But four days after that, the White House learned the crown prince had done the opposite: Saudi officials notified the Americans
that Saudi Arabia would back production cuts at the OPEC Plus meeting, which took place in Vienna."
What Next?
What would the US do to help the oil market?
What would it do to punish Saudi Arabia?
On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 6:25:55TC, ltlee1 wrote:justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.
On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:53:08 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html --------------------------------------
A Secret, Failed Oil Deal: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured
Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong, Adam Entous
13-17 minutes
U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
After Saudi leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit by President Biden, American officials have been left fuming that they were duped.
Oct. 25, 2022
WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped
thought it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.It didn’t work out that way.
Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration
helping Russia in its war in Ukraine.The move led angry Biden administration officials to reassess America’s relationship with the kingdom and produced a flurry of accusatory statements between the two governments — including a charge by the White House that Saudi Arabia was
September and December — have been left fuming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman duped the administration.Lawmakers who had been told about the trip’s benefits in classified briefings and other conversations that included details of the oil deal — which has not been previously disclosed and was supposed to lead to a surge in production between
...Dissing in Progress:
--------------------------------------
1. Saudi Refusal
"NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mohammed bin Salman isn’t taking Joe Biden’s calls. Saudi Arabia’s
de facto leader has ignored pleas from the American president to pump more oil after the United States and Britain
boycotted Russian output, the Wall Street Journal reported. "
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/saudis-mbs-will-eventually-take-bidens-call-2022-03-10/
2. A Presidential Trip
"Biden administration officials began planning in the spring for the president to make a summit stop in
Saudi Arabia while also visiting Israel over the summer. They knew such a trip would bring criticism: Mr. Biden had
denounced Prince Mohammed during the presidential campaign, had ordered the declassification of an intelligence
assessment that the prince likely ordered the killing of Mr. Khashoggi and had thus far in his presidency refused to
have a one-on-one meeting with the crown prince.
But some of the president’s aides saw both short- and long-term benefits for the trip and had quietly tried to repair the
relationship. They said it was important to work with the kingdom on the Yemen war and Iran, and to expand Israel’s
acceptance in the region. More immediately, they believed, the trip could shore up a Saudi commitment to convince
OPEC to increase oil production as Russia’s war in Ukraine had led to surging global fuel prices."
3. The Secret Deal
"American officials said that in May, they reached a private oil deal with the Saudis that had two parts.
First, the Saudis would accelerate an OPEC Plus production increase of 400,000 barrels per day already planned for
September, moving it to July and August. Then the Saudis would get the cartel to announce a further production increase
of 200,000 barrels per day for each month from September to December of this year.
American officials said they hoped the announcements of gradual increases would signal to the markets that the Saudis
were willing to address supply issues."
4. Public Theater
"On June 2, OPEC Plus announced they would move up the production increase scheduled for September — fulfilling the
first part of the secret deal.
That same day, the White House announced Mr. Biden would soon make a trip to Saudi Arabia."
5. Warning and Reassurance
"The Americans came away from the summit with the belief that the agreement was on track and that Prince Mohammed
was satisfied. But in Riyadh, top Saudi officials were privately telling others that they had no plans for further meaningful
oil production increases.
Indeed, the first public warning of this came on Aug. 3, when OPEC Plus announced a paltry bump in production for September
of 100,000 barrels a day — half of what U.S. officials believed the Saudis had promised them.
American officials said they did not understand why that decision was made. Then OPEC Plus announced on Sept. 5 it would
cut production by 100,000 barrels per day — retracting the increase it had announced a month earlier. After that, U.S. officials
were increasingly confused and concerned about the kingdom’s direction.
In late September, American officials began hearing that Saudi Arabia could get OPEC Plus to announce a deep cut to oil
production at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 5. U.S. officials scrambled to get Prince Mohammed to back away from any such
move. ...
On Sept. 24, American officials met in person in the kingdom with Prince Mohammed and his brother Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman,
the Saudi energy minister. During the meeting, Prince Mohammed assured the Americans that there would be no production cuts,
according to U.S. officials with direct knowledge of what transpired."
6. October Surprise
"But four days after that, the White House learned the crown prince had done the opposite: Saudi officials notified the Americans
that Saudi Arabia would back production cuts at the OPEC Plus meeting, which took place in Vienna."
What Next?On punishing Saudi Arabia:
What would the US do to help the oil market?
What would it do to punish Saudi Arabia?
1. Withdraw US protection as Trump had threatened several years ago.
“OPEC and OPEC nations are, as usual, ripping off the rest of the world, and I don’t like it.
Nobody should like it,’ he said. ‘We defend many of these nations for nothing, and then
they take advantage of us by giving us high oil prices. Not good. We want them to stop
raising prices. We want them to start lowering prices and they must contribute substantially
to military protection from now on.”
2. Enact the NOPEC Bill. If passed, it could enable the US to seize Saudi assets.
"WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - U.S. legislation that could open members of oil producing
group OPEC+ to antitrust lawsuits has emerged as a possible tool to tackle high fuel prices,
after the body said it would slash production despite lobbying by the Biden administration.
The No Oil Producing or Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) bill sponsored by senators, including
Republican Chuck Grassley and Democrat Amy Klobuchar, passed 17-4 in the Senate
Judiciary Committee.
White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said the administration has concerns about the
"potential implications and unintended consequences" of the legislation, particularly amid
the Ukraine crisis. She said the White House is still studying the bill.
...
The bill is also opposed by the American Petroleum Institute, the top U.S. oil and gas lobbying
group. In a letter to the committee's leaders, API said NOPEC "creates significant potential
detrimental exposure to U.S. diplomatic, military and business interests while likely having limited impact
on the market concerns driving the legislation."
Some analysts have cautioned that NOPEC could ultimately harm domestic energy companies
if it pressures Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to flood global markets with oil, because
they produce oil much more cheaply than U.S. companies do."
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-is-nopec-us-bill-pressure-opec-oil-group-2022-10-05/
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