https://www.theamericanconservative.com/unwarranted-optimism/ -------------------------------------------------------------------Even in early March, barely two weeks into the fighting, Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the “extraordinary resilience” of the Ukrainian people and expressed confidence that Ukraine ultimately would be victorious. “Of course they can win
Ted Galen Carpenter
The Confederates after Chancellorsville forgot the structural odds against them. Is Ukraine making the same mistake?
Western optimism about Ukraine’s prospects has been on the rise for months. As soon as Russian forces failed to take Kiev and became bogged down on other fronts during the spring of 2022, Western expectations about a favorable outcome to the war grew.
Such upbeat assessments were not confined to Biden administration officials. Congenitally hawkish American Enterprise Institute analyst Frederick W. Kagan wrote that “Ukraine can win this war against Russia. Ukrainian forces may be able to driveRussian troops back from Ukraine’s cities toward the Russian borders. They may be able to establish ground and air defenses strong enough to preclude renewed Russian attacks for a long time.” In early May, top diplomats from NATO members met with
That confidence among Western opinion leaders became even more pronounced when Ukrainian forces scored their major territorial gains in the autumn of 2022. Daniel L. Davis, a former military officer and currently a senior fellow at Defense Priorities,documents how so many of America’s retired generals became wildly positive about Ukraine’s chances of victory.
That confidence among Western opinion leaders became even more pronounced when Ukrainian forces scored their major territorial gains in the autumn of 2022. Daniel L. Davis, a former military officer and currently a senior fellow at Defense Priorities,documents how so many of America’s retired generals became wildly positive about Ukraine’s chances of victory.
A few voices within the U.S. foreign policy establishment expressed less exuberance about Kiev’s chances for victory in the long run. The most significant example was a January 7, 2023, op-ed by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and formerSecretary of Defense Robert M. Gates in the Washington Post. The title of the piece, “Time Is Not on Ukraine’s Side,” conveyed their concern.
Both of us have dealt with Putin on a number of occasions, and we are convinced he believes time is on his side: that he can wear down the Ukrainians and that U.S. and European unity and support for Ukraine will eventually erode and fracture. To besure, the Russian economy and people will suffer as the war continues, but Russians have endured far worse.
The two former officials noted thatindustrial capacity and considerable agricultural land are under Russian control. Ukraine’s military capability and economy are now dependent almost entirely on lifelines from the West—primarily, the United States.
although Ukraine’s response to the invasion has been heroic and its military has performed brilliantly, the country’s economy is in a shambles, millions of its people have fled, its infrastructure is being destroyed, and much of its mineral wealth,
...Rice and Gates are correct that time is not on Ukraine’s side.
Although no episode in world affairs ever fully replicates an earlier one, developments in the Russia–Ukraine war have had multiple eerie parallels to America’s Civil War. If that pattern continues, and there is every reason to believe that it will,
...wounded since the war began. U.S. news media highlighted that number in their headlines. What received far less attention was Milley’s admission that Ukrainian forces also had suffered more than 100,000 casualties. That point is significant because
Russian leaders obviously were far too confident about their chances of success. However, the optimism in the United States and throughout NATO about Ukraine’s ultimate victory is misplaced. Again, some parallels with the Civil War are striking.
One key measure that should be extremely worrisome to Ukraine is military casualties. An assessment by Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in early November 2022 concluded that Russian forces had suffered more than 100,000 dead and
...manpower and weaponry would come to bear, just as the North’s superiority in those two areas did in America’s Civil War. Instead of gloating over Ukraine’s temporary battlefield victories, Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and its friends in the
A significant improvement in the skill level of Russian battlefield commanders or a reduction in the level of Western military aid to Kiev would doom Ukraine’s structurally frail hopes of victory. At that point, the full weight of Russia’s greater
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On Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 12:51:05 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:grew. Even in early March, barely two weeks into the fighting, Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the “extraordinary resilience” of the Ukrainian people and expressed confidence that Ukraine ultimately would be victorious. “Of course they
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/unwarranted-optimism/ -------------------------------------------------------------------
Ted Galen Carpenter
The Confederates after Chancellorsville forgot the structural odds against them. Is Ukraine making the same mistake?
Western optimism about Ukraine’s prospects has been on the rise for months. As soon as Russian forces failed to take Kiev and became bogged down on other fronts during the spring of 2022, Western expectations about a favorable outcome to the war
Russian troops back from Ukraine’s cities toward the Russian borders. They may be able to establish ground and air defenses strong enough to preclude renewed Russian attacks for a long time.” In early May, top diplomats from NATO members met withSuch upbeat assessments were not confined to Biden administration officials. Congenitally hawkish American Enterprise Institute analyst Frederick W. Kagan wrote that “Ukraine can win this war against Russia. Ukrainian forces may be able to drive
documents how so many of America’s retired generals became wildly positive about Ukraine’s chances of victory.That confidence among Western opinion leaders became even more pronounced when Ukrainian forces scored their major territorial gains in the autumn of 2022. Daniel L. Davis, a former military officer and currently a senior fellow at Defense Priorities,
documents how so many of America’s retired generals became wildly positive about Ukraine’s chances of victory.That confidence among Western opinion leaders became even more pronounced when Ukrainian forces scored their major territorial gains in the autumn of 2022. Daniel L. Davis, a former military officer and currently a senior fellow at Defense Priorities,
Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates in the Washington Post. The title of the piece, “Time Is Not on Ukraine’s Side,” conveyed their concern.A few voices within the U.S. foreign policy establishment expressed less exuberance about Kiev’s chances for victory in the long run. The most significant example was a January 7, 2023, op-ed by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former
sure, the Russian economy and people will suffer as the war continues, but Russians have endured far worse.Both of us have dealt with Putin on a number of occasions, and we are convinced he believes time is on his side: that he can wear down the Ukrainians and that U.S. and European unity and support for Ukraine will eventually erode and fracture. To be
wealth, industrial capacity and considerable agricultural land are under Russian control. Ukraine’s military capability and economy are now dependent almost entirely on lifelines from the West—primarily, the United States.The two former officials noted that
although Ukraine’s response to the invasion has been heroic and its military has performed brilliantly, the country’s economy is in a shambles, millions of its people have fled, its infrastructure is being destroyed, and much of its mineral
will, Rice and Gates are correct that time is not on Ukraine’s side....
Although no episode in world affairs ever fully replicates an earlier one, developments in the Russia–Ukraine war have had multiple eerie parallels to America’s Civil War. If that pattern continues, and there is every reason to believe that it
and wounded since the war began. U.S. news media highlighted that number in their headlines. What received far less attention was Milley’s admission that Ukrainian forces also had suffered more than 100,000 casualties. That point is significant because...
Russian leaders obviously were far too confident about their chances of success. However, the optimism in the United States and throughout NATO about Ukraine’s ultimate victory is misplaced. Again, some parallels with the Civil War are striking.
One key measure that should be extremely worrisome to Ukraine is military casualties. An assessment by Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in early November 2022 concluded that Russian forces had suffered more than 100,000 dead
greater manpower and weaponry would come to bear, just as the North’s superiority in those two areas did in America’s Civil War. Instead of gloating over Ukraine’s temporary battlefield victories, Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and its friends...
A significant improvement in the skill level of Russian battlefield commanders or a reduction in the level of Western military aid to Kiev would doom Ukraine’s structurally frail hopes of victory. At that point, the full weight of Russia’s
-------------------------------------------------------------------According to Putin, "Western powers promised at the end of the Cold War not to expand NATO, but later reneged on that promise."
https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/45/3/162/95270/The-United-States-and-the-NATO-Non-extension?redirectedFrom=fulltext
To secure long term interest of Russia, Putin had to strike out and of course to prove to the world that he was committed to Russian interest.
In response to pending Russian invasion, Biden had promised to bombed the Nord Stream Pipelines. The pipelines were bombed. The US
released proforma statements denying its involvement. The mismatch between the seriousness of the bombing and the lightness of US denial
send the world an unmistakable message that the US as a hegemon should be taken seriously, or else. Zelensky, the weakest of three, also
proves his balls by motivating the nation during its darkest period. It fights a bigger and better prepared Russia to a standstill with belated
help from other nations.
What now?
Russia has little hope of taken out the anti-Russian government. At the same time, Zelensky could not realistically hope to recover lost territory.
The US and its NATO allies? After all, insurgency in the Donbas regions is partially homegrown. Fighting between pro-Russian force and Ukrainian
nationalists has been ongoing before official Russian involvement. The meat grinding could continue. But at what cost?
The situation looks like a case of chicken meat. Some meat is still available for all sides. But really not much. And at great costs.
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