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Only 24 per cent of Australians surveyed in a new poll reported that
they could name a single thing that had made their lives better since
the Albanese government was elected.

The new figure from RedBridge polling group taken in August might
explain why Anthony Albanese seems hypervigilant about avoiding culture
wars.

In Labor ranks, Albanese is known for being pretty good at knowing how
to identify the booby traps being laid out for him to step on. His
government has been trying to singularly focus on one thing — the cost-of-living crisis. They identify it as the central thing that the
majority of voters really care about.

So when Peter Dutton spent two weeks of parliament asking about visas
for Gazans, senior government ministers knew this was territory they
didn't want to be on. They hoped it would backfire on Dutton — but the
early polling shows he was backed by a majority of voters on the issue.

This context is important to keep in mind when considering the curious
case of how the prime minister intervened — and then partially had to
back down — on questions in the 2026 census on sexuality and gender. If
you are wondering why we spent a working week arguing about a survey —
yep, a giant national questionnaire — stay with me.

A new problem for Albanese
Albanese is understood to have been worried that adding questions — particularly around trans identity — would open a can of ideological and culture war worms and deprive the government of more oxygen, again.

All it wants to be saying to voters as the election draws close is, "we
are mainstream, we know you are doing it tough, we are the ones that can
help you, we aren't woke".

Spending any time arguing about what the definition of a woman is and
what Dutton called a "woke" agenda is seen by Albanese and the hard
heads around him as a distraction. And it is, unless of course you are
in one of the groups of people who had expected the government to
deliver on its commitments to count you in the census.

But in trying to avoid the trap, the PM created a new problem.

He invited backlash of epic proportions, making progressive voters who
do care about these issues — an important group for this government — wonder if he had the courage of their convictions. The PM's backdown on
Friday morning and agreement to include a question around sexuality
doesn't end the matter either — with crossbenchers and LGBTQ activists
now pushing to get a guarantee that gender identity questions will still
be included.

Watch this space — this issue has really only been partially neutralised
by the government.

A messy week, and messy is the polite word
Last week was a messy week for the government. From the census debacle,
to the PM's hot mic moment in the Pacific distracting from the big
investment he had made in the region on policing, to the big
universities, who are now on the warpath over caps to international
student numbers.

On top of that, there were scenes of CFMEU workers spilling across
capital city streets protesting over the government sending in
administrators to clean up the union.

It didn't really go according to plan.

As one Labor insider said to me, "it always looks easier from the
outside", in relation to the public criticism the government has been attracting.

Amid all the political white noise, the one big thing the government
wants to be talking about — the economy, stupid — was overshadowed yet again.

And on this, there was a slightly better story to tell — the monthly inflation rate has slowed to 3.5 per cent, largely thanks to a dramatic
fall in electricity prices to 5.1 per cent off the back of government
rebates.

Why is the government so keen to talk about cost of living?
If you are wondering why the government is so keen to be so focused on
cost of living, new numbers tell the story.

New RedBridge research from a big survey of 1,652 voters at the end of
August asked a range of questions. The most stunning result came from
this question: Can you name something the federal government led by
Albanese has done since being elected in May 2022 that has made your
life better in any way?

Concerningly for the government, a staggering 57 per cent couldn't name
a thing that had made their lives better.


There was, however, around 24 per cent of Australians that could
identify something. For that cohort, a once-controversial decision was
the winner.

A significant 28 per cent in the category said the changes to the stage
3 tax cuts had made their lives better, with 26 per cent saying the
electricity rebate had improved their lives. Things like pension
increases and HECS changes were identified at lower numbers.


RedBridge director Tony Barry tells me this shows why the government is
so keen to hammer home the message about what it is doing to help people.

"Labor strategists will be very concerned that 76 per cent of voters are
unable to identify anything that Albanese has done to improve their lives.

"The problem for Labor is that at the moment, Albanese is a prime
minister in search of a narrative.

"Unless Albanese can show some message discipline on cost of living and demonstrate results, he's at risk of being run over by the grievance bus
at the next election."

Kos Samaras from Redbridge says in 2022, Labor secured a majority of
seats largely due to the support of three key voter groups and all of
those groups are currently cranky with them:

Highly educated constituencies: "These voters, who strongly supported
climate action and marriage equality, turned out in significant numbers
for Labor."

Diverse communities: "A core part of Labor's base, particularly in working-class electorates in Sydney and Melbourne, where Labor's support
has traditionally been strongest."

Low-income constituencies: "Frustrated by nearly a decade of wage
stagnation under the Coalition government, these voters played a crucial
role in Labor's victory."

But he says that since that election win, Labor has faced challenges in retaining the support of these groups.

"The government has been criticised for its slow response to the
cost-of-living crisis, its mishandling of the sensitive politics
surrounding the conflict in Gaza, and its poor management of a
low-profile but significant issue concerning a Census question. These
missteps have led to growing discontent among the very voters who were instrumental in Labor's success."

The truth is that governing is hard. So much so that I've had opposition
MPs tell me they are having a lot more fun — despite having little real
power — in opposition.

In the meantime, the government has got to get better at spending so
much time avoiding booby traps that they step in even bigger ones.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-02/albanese-trap-culture-war/104293234

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